1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda was weak this week, with an average market price of 2591.8 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2509.8 yuan/ton on the weekend, a price drop of 3.16% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. On January 21st, the baking soda commodity index was 166.59, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.36% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 88.73% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is weak and downstream markets are purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is strong, with a mainstream market quotation of around 2200-2700 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the upstream soda ash prices for baking soda have been weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2500 yuan/ton, and the average market price on the weekend was 2440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4%, a decrease of 8.48% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, with weak performance in the upstream raw material soda ash sector. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other sectors of baking soda have been purchasing on demand in recent times, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will be weak in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide method SG5 fluctuated and fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic PVC price was 5550 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price was 5538 yuan/ton, with a 0.22% increase in price during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market prices fluctuated this week. At present, the spot market situation is still good, and the trading situation is average. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. Downstream just needs to pick up goods, considering that the end of the year is approaching, some small processing plants are considering a holiday. Downstream demand is slowing down, enterprise inventories are high, and actual transactions are cautious. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5280-5750 yuan/ton.

On January 18th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $73.95 per barrel, with an increase of $1.47 or 2.0%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.10 per barrel, an increase of $1.22 or 1.6%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have remained stable this week, with an average domestic price of 3000 yuan/ton. The upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall narrowly in late January, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that the PVC spot market has had average trading this week. The upstream calcium carbide is temporarily stable with average support. The downstream procurement situation is cautious, and the market has a general demand for PVC spot goods, mainly based on demand. It is expected that the PVC spot market will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of butyl rubber in the domestic market remained stable this week, with a market price of around 17675 yuan/ton as of the 12th.

High purity isobutylene raw material: Recently, international crude oil prices have fluctuated upwards, leading to a 0.9% increase in the price of high-purity isobutylene raw material.

In terms of demand: The domestic semi steel tire industry has a load rate of over 78% this week, while the full steel tire industry has a load rate of over 62%. The load rate of the steel tire industry is higher than last week.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that both the cost and demand sides of butyl rubber have good support, and it is expected that the butyl rubber market will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has fluctuated slightly recently. At the beginning of the month, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8560.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%. The price has increased by 2.50% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating and consolidating in the past three months, and this week’s market is still fluctuating within a small range. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, and cost support is still acceptable. Downstream demand has not improved, while styrene supply is relatively abundant, inventory decline is slow, and the rise is weak, with limited market fluctuations.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On January 8th, the price of pure benzene was 7413 yuan/ton. On Friday (January 12th), the price of pure benzene was 7480 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8% from last week and 7.39% from the same period last year. The pure benzene market in East China is still relatively active, with far month and month difference transactions being the main focus. Shandong’s low-priced sources of goods are trading actively, while the high priced sources of goods are trading less than expected.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9600 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average price of PS was 9566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% and a decrease of 1.71% compared to the same period last year. The cost support for PS is weak, and demand is weak. It is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) price will mainly fluctuate downward in the short term.

The EPS market has slightly increased this week, with an average price of 10000.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials at the beginning of the week and 10050.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. Upstream support has weakened, with a focus on market transactions. Terminal profits are meager, and buying follow-up is limited. Overall transactions are average, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market. Buying is mainly in demand.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices of various brands have adjusted narrowly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10662.5 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price level at the beginning of the month. In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, and due to supply pressure, some enterprises had a reduced load. This week, the operating rate of ABS aggregation enterprises has been lowered to below 68%, resulting in stable production and a decrease in inventory due to factory destocking operations. However, the improvement of the company’s profit situation is limited, and there is still pressure on the supply side.

In recent times, international oil prices have continued to rise, with good cost support. Downstream demand is strong for essential goods but weak for spot goods. Specifically, it depends on the market’s situation of buying at low prices before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the short-term volatility of the styrene market will mainly rise.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the first grade industrial potassium nitrate in Shanxi was reported at 5375 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and at 5325 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.93% and a month on month decrease of 2.74%. The current price has dropped by 9.94% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has declined, and it can be seen from the above chart that the recent potassium nitrate market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. The market price of raw material potassium chloride has declined, with poor cost support. Downstream demand generally maintains rigid procurement, and potassium nitrate manufacturers dispatch orders for shipment, resulting in a weak price decline. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 5100-5300 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market for potassium chloride and potassium chloride has declined. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has been weakly consolidating, with poor cost support and weak downstream procurement. It is expected that the potassium carbonate market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be watched.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China was 3016.67 yuan/ton, and the weekend price decreased by 18.83% year-on-year. On January 7th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 79.04, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.76% from the highest point in the cycle of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 42.44% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have remained stable this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has slightly declined, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal was around 1110 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient cost support. The PVC market price has slightly increased this week, dropping from 5638 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5628 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.18%. Weekend prices fell by 8.56% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

In mid to late January, the calcium carbide market may experience narrow fluctuations and decline. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, raw material blue charcoal prices have slightly declined, and cost support is insufficient. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline in mid to late January, with consolidation being the main trend.

High level consolidation of plasticizer DOTP this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the price of DOTP was 12210 yuan/ton, which decreased and then increased by 0.66% compared to December 29th, when the price of DOTP was 12130 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol first fell and then rose, and cost support still exists. Plasticizer enterprises have started to decline, and the price of DOTP has stabilized at a high level after the holiday.

After the holiday, the operating rate of DOTP enterprises decreased from 60% before the holiday to less than 50% after the holiday. The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises decreased, the supply of DOTP decreased, and the support for DOTP increase increased, resulting in a decrease in demand for raw materials such as isooctanol and phthalic anhydride.

After the holiday, the price of isooctanol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the price of isooctanol was 12962.50 yuan/ton, which was a decrease and then an increase of 0.10% compared to the price of isooctanol on December 29th, which was 12950 yuan/ton. This week, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers has fallen, and large plasticizer manufacturers are in urgent need of procurement. The transaction volume of isooctanol is poor, and the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient. After the holiday, the main manufacturers of isooctanol are offering discounts for sales, but the price of isooctanol has decreased. As DOTP enterprises start operating lower, the price of DOTP has increased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol has increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the quotation for phthalic anhydride was 7687.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.33% compared to the quotation of 7662.50 yuan/ton on December 29th. After the holiday, phthalic anhydride continued to rise, coupled with an increase in the price of ortho benzene, the phthalic anhydride market rebounded, and the cost of DOP increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that after the holiday, the price of isooctanol first fell and then rose, while the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise. The support for the rising cost of plasticizers still exists; The production of DOTP enterprises has decreased, the supply of plasticizers has decreased, and the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and risen. In the future, cost support for DOTP still exists, and the supply of plasticizer DOTP is decreasing with weak demand. It is expected that DOTP prices will remain strong and consolidate at a high level in the future.

On December 28th, the hydrogenation benzene commodity index was 79.29, an increase of 0.19 points from yesterday, a decrease of 26.70% from the highest point in the cycle of 108.17 points (2022-06-15), and an increase of 164.39% from the lowest point of 29.99 points on April 7th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2013 to present).

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the overall market for hydrogenated benzene was on the rise in December 2023. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 7066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7183.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.65%.

Crude oil prices: International crude oil futures plummeted by over 3% on December 28th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.77 per barrel, a decrease of $2.34 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $77.15 per barrel, a decrease of $2.39 or 3.0%. Red Sea shipping has gradually resumed, geopolitical risks have eased, and oil prices are under pressure. Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the current sustained rebound in oil prices is mainly affected by geopolitical tensions. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand game remains the main logic of transactions: on the supply side, OPEC+deepens production cuts, and the expected increase in US production will show a trade-off. On the demand side, the depreciation of the US dollar and the expectation of a Fed rate cut will boost oil prices. Overall, the short-term impact of the geopolitical situation on oil prices will continue to explore upward space, while the medium – and long-term supply and demand will exacerbate the broad fluctuations in the oil market

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has fluctuated, with recent declines followed by gains.

In December 2023, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was lowered twice and raised twice, with a cumulative increase of 50 yuan/ton. Currently, it is being implemented at 7250 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7063 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7250 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of pure benzene slightly decreased at the beginning of this month, and has been rising since mid month. On December 1st, the price was 6692 yuan/ton; On December 29th, the price was at 7230 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.03% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 10.68% from the same period last year.

In terms of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market in December basically followed the overall trend of crude oil, falling first and then rising. In the first half of the month, it continued to decline, and in the second half, it steadily rose and recovered the month’s decline, ultimately closing up 8.03%. Sinopec’s listed price first fell and then rose, with a cumulative increase of 50 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuated, and by the end of the month, mainstream manufacturers in the main production areas were executing 7200 yuan/ton, indicating a strong overall operation of the industrial chain.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has had relatively small fluctuations since entering October, with mixed ups and downs.

As the end of the month approaches, crude oil is expected to decline and styrene market is expected to decline, which will have a certain drag on the pure benzene market. The spot market is also expected to decline. In addition, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have started operating lower recently, and market expectations for future production may decline due to profit influence. The supply of hydrogenated benzene is expected to be slightly tight, and with mixed negative and positive factors, it is expected that the hydrogenated benzene market will tend to fluctuate in the future. The focus is on the impact of subsequent crude oil and styrene market trends on market sentiment.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market fluctuated and increased in December. The price of tetrahydrofuran increased from 12775 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12925 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.17%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 0.58% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly increased this month, with average inventory levels.

From a cost perspective, the market price of maleic anhydride increased significantly in December, rising from 7100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7860 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.70%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.61% at the end of the month. The market situation for 1,4-butanediol slightly declined in December. The price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 9628.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9535.71 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.96%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 2.10% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly increased, with good cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the demand side, the price of spandex in the market decreased slightly in December. The price of spandex decreased from 32575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 32125 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.38%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 9.51% year-on-year. The downstream spandex market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Looking at the future: In mid to early January, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. Upstream maleic anhydride and market conditions have significantly increased, leading to increased cost support. The downstream spandex market is showing an upward trend, while downstream demand is average. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and increases mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of December 28th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and superior product in China, was 14800 yuan/ton. The price of PMMA for the whole year has decreased by 0.5%, and the price has remained stable with a small fluctuation range. The price position for the whole year is around 14800 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced.

In 2023, the PMMA market was lukewarm, with less than expected demand and limited upward space. The mainstream price remained around 14800 yuan/ton due to insufficient momentum. In the first half of 2023, PMMA showed a continuous downward trend, with a price drop of 100 yuan/ton, which was not too large. Later in the second half of the year, prices experienced a brief rebound, with an upward space of around 150 yuan/ton, and the fluctuations were particularly small, Although it is an indispensable high-quality material in daily life, the PMMA market has relatively concentrated sales, and there are very few manufacturers in the country that can sustain the long-term production of PMMA. Therefore, the common brands in the market are well-known to everyone, including a few enterprises.

PMMA, also known as organic glass, is widely used not only in commercial, light industry, construction, chemical and other fields. Moreover, the production of organic glass is widely used in advertising decoration and sand table models, such as signs, billboards, light box panels, and Chinese and English letter panels, all of which require the participation of organic glass. Organic glass can be divided into four types according to its appearance, with colorless transparent organic glass being the most common and currently being tracked by business societies. Colored transparent organic glass, commonly known as color plates, is used to make lighting fixtures, etc. It is transparent and transparent in the air, Pearlescent organic glass is made by adding pearlescent powder or fluorescent powder to general organic glass. This type of organic glass has a bright color, and embossed organic glass can be used as embossed glass, which is transparent, semi transparent, and colorless.

From the comparison chart of upstream and downstream, it can be seen that the upstream trend has no significant impact on PMMA. The trend of PMMA mainly depends on downstream demand, and the amount of downstream demand is the main reason affecting PMMA. Currently, the overall market of PMMA is in a state of supply and demand balance, and production capacity and demand are just in balance, making it difficult for prices to experience explosive growth and decline. So the probability of PMMA maintaining its current status in 2024 is relatively high, and there won’t be much improvement.

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that for many years, PMMA has been in a state of supply and demand balance, and there will be no sharp rise or fall in the market. It mainly depends on downstream demand, and the relationship with upstream is not very significant.