1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 rose and fell in July, and the rise of spot price was blocked. As of July 31, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for China viscosity was about 15366.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.77% over the average price at the beginning of the month and 40.12% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of upstream caprolactam, the domestic caprolactam spot market rose in July and fluctuated at a high level. In July, the positive supply side was undertaken at the end of June, and the increase of this month was also concentrated in the first ten days of this month. In the middle of the month, international crude oil fell, while the supply of direct raw material pure benzene was expected to increase, the downward pressure increased, and the rise of domestic caprolactam was blocked. At the end of the month, although the trend of raw material pure benzene did not improve, the supply side support remained due to the tight supply of factory maintenance. On the demand side, there is no obvious benefit, and it is expected that the price of caprolactam will be stable in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam price range remained high, and the positive cost side of PA6 supported the rise of spot price in early July. However, the high cost pressure suppressed the operating rate of polymerization plants. In July, the load of domestic PA6 polymerization plants changed less than that at the beginning of the month, stabilizing at about 60%. The market demand is sluggish, the consumption of terminal enterprises has not yet come out of the off-season market, and there is a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue. Among them, the feedback of high-speed spinning chips is acceptable due to the positive impact of cost, and the price of conventional spinning in the middle and late days is mainly limited. I heard that most of the manufacturers’ actual shipments are early orders, and many merchants have active shipment operations. At present, buyers are in the mood of offsetting the high price supply, and the preparation operation is biased towards the just needed replenishment to maintain production.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 remained stable after rising in July, which supports the cost of PA6. In the first ten days, PA6 passively followed the rise of raw materials. Although the cost pressure compressed the operating rate of the industry, the domestic chip inventory still increased and the supply side was weakened. The end-users followed up slowly, the venue resisted the supply of high-priced goods, the spot was under pressure in the middle and late days, and the merchants gradually let the profits ship. At present, the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may weaken in a narrow range in the short term.

Orthobenzene market remained stable

According to the data monitoring of business society, since the price of orthobenzene rose slightly in early May, the price of orthobenzene remained stable for two and a half consecutive months. In August, the price of orthobenzene rose again, and the market of orthobenzene finally rose. In August, the listing price of o-benzene was 6300 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton or 1.61% over the listing price of 6200 yuan / ton in July.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and stabilized

According to the data test of business society, since July, the price of mixed xylene has first increased and then decreased, the overall mixed xylene market has stabilized, the price of raw materials in the upstream of o-benzene has stabilized, and the rising power of o-benzene market still exists, and the downward pressure has weakened.

The downstream market continued to rise

According to the data of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride rose continuously in July, and the phthalic anhydride market warmed up sharply. The downstream market of ortho benzene rose, the demand for ortho benzene warmed up, the demand for ortho benzene was strong, and the rising power of ortho benzene increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of o-xylene in business society, believes that since May, the high price shock of mixed xylene has stabilized, the cost of o-xylene is stable, and the driving force for the rise of o-xylene is still weak; In July, the downstream phthalic anhydride market rose sharply, the downstream demand for o-benzene warmed up, and the downstream rising power of o-benzene increased. Overall, the recovery of downstream demand stimulated the rise of orthobenzene market, and the price of orthobenzene finally rose in August.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14450 yuan / ton on July 26 and 14550 yuan / ton on July 30. The price of caprolactam rose 0.69% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of July 30, Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price was 15300 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, the unit was started normally, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 14900 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14900 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14900 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 14200 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

The average price of raw material pure benzene this week was 8210 yuan / ton, down 2.84% from the beginning of the month. As the exchange trading atmosphere weakened, the price of styrene fell, and the pure benzene market was worrying. The downstream PA6 starts stably, and the demand for caprolactam is acceptable.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that although the trend of raw material pure benzene is poor, the supply side has a certain support for the caprolactam market due to the tight supply of factory maintenance, and the demand side is not good for the time being. The price of caprolactam is expected to be stable in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur price trend in East China ran smoothly this week. On July 25, the average sulfur production price was 1646.67 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price on July 19, an increase of 0.20% compared with the beginning of July.

The domestic sulfur market is dominated by consolidation and operation, refineries in various regions are stable and small, downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, a small number of orders in the market, the spot in the port is relatively concentrated, the quantity of supply ships is limited, and the on-site mentality is partial to wait-and-see. During the week, refineries in various regions in China adjusted their prices according to their own shipments. The price of liquid sulfur was increased by 20-30 yuan / ton, and the price of sulfur fixation was temporarily stable. As of the 25th, the prices of sulfur in various regions in China are as follows:

region varieties July 25th

East China Sulfur (particle) 1680-1740 yuan / ton

North China Sulfur (particle) 1470-1600 yuan / ton

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 1620-1640 yuan / ton

In the downstream phosphate fertilizer market, the price trend of Monoammonium was stable, and diammonium rose slightly. Monoammonium enterprises have sufficient orders, mainly digest early export orders, accept a small number of new orders, have limited spot supply, tight on-site supply and maintain a high price. Domestic demand for diammonium is strong, and enterprises mainly supply export orders in the early stage. Coupled with the approaching fertilizer use in autumn, domestic demand is good, and the future market may continue to rise. Comprehensive phosphate fertilizer market analysis has a good support for the later trend of upstream sulfur.

According to the sulfur analysts of business society, the domestic sulfur market remains stable at a high level, the production and sales of refineries in various regions are stable, and the market trading is good. In addition, the downstream phosphate fertilizer supports the sulfur market, the operator has a positive attitude, and the future sulfur market will continue to be sorted out at a high level, paying specific attention to the market transaction.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of baking soda is strong, and the average market price is 1900 yuan / ton. The soda commodity index on July 26 was 125.00, which was flat with yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 41.61 percent from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020（ Note: the cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is strong and the demand of downstream market is good in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan Province is about 1850-1950 yuan, and the downstream demand is still available. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei Province is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand is still available. It is expected that the price will be strong in the later period.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of business society, according to the monitoring data of business society, the prices in East China are stable and small, and the current mainstream market price of light soda is about 1950-2050 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is stable temporarily, and the current market price of light soda is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is stable temporarily, and the current market price of light soda is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the high price operation of short-term soda ash is mainly.

Demand: downstream side medicine, textile, food demand for baking soda in the near future is still acceptable, the price of baking soda in the near future is strong. Analysts of business society think: domestic soda price is strong, market investment atmosphere is relatively stable, manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. The demand for baking soda in downstream medicine, textile and food has improved in the near future. In a comprehensive view, the price of baking soda is short-term or high, and the demand of downstream market is seen.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of July 26, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14700 yuan / ton, down 4.55% compared with the price on July 20, up 12.50% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and up 13.66% compared with the price on June 26.

The epichlorohydrin market rose strongly in the middle and early days of July, with an increase of 17.86%. Since late July, the market situation of epichlorohydrin has dropped, and the tight spot supply situation in the market continues, but the demand side is depressed, the downstream market entry mood is cautious, the market buying mood is not high, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the shipment of goods holders is weak, the low price offer appears in the market, and the overall atmosphere is light.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market turned around and continued to rise this week (7.19-7.23). At the beginning of the week, the market was 7673 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7809 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.66%.

For downstream epoxy resin, as of July 23, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China had declined as a whole, and the high-end offer had declined significantly. The mainstream of the local market negotiated the ex factory price of 32000 / T barrel.

Business society epichlorohydrin analysts believe that, in general, the current downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, mainly on demand, the mentality continues to be cautious, and the lack of demand is still a constraint. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may run weakly in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the domestic polyester filament market has maintained a rising trend this week, including the quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 7800-8050 yuan / ton, polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) at 9300-9600 yuan / ton, and polyester FDY (150D / 96F) at 7900-8200 yuan / ton.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament market this week, unit: yuan / ton

product 2021-7-19 2021-7-23 Rise and fall Year on year rise and fall

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) eight thousand and twenty-five eight thousand and seventy-five 0.62% 45.38%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) seven thousand seven hundred and seventy-seven seven thousand and nine hundred 1.57% 56.67%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) nine thousand three hundred and sixty-five nine thousand four hundred and eighty-eight 1.31% 43.60%

The PTA Market for raw materials was opened on July 22, and the main futures contracts rose strongly to 5330 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.00%. The average price in the spot market was 5361 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.73% and a year-on-year increase of 51.83%. Under high temperature, the demand for polyester is not weak in the off-season, and the operating rate is close to 90%. The maintenance of PTA unit remained high, which superimposed the impact of recent typhoon weather in East China on its transportation, and exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in some regions in the short term. At the same time, the oil price stabilized and rebounded, and the support at the support end increased, leading to the rise of PTA market.

Due to the improvement of downstream fabrics in autumn and winter, early preparation and better expectation in the second half of the year, in fact, the weaving end has already begun to rebound, and the startup rate is rising sharply. At present, the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 79.63%, higher than the level in the same period last year, and the weaving Market is getting warmer locally. Among them, autumn orders in Shengze area are issued sporadically. Due to the rise in the price of raw materials, some weaving factories produce in advance. Foreign trade orders can be issued in August, and subsequent foreign trade orders may continue to be issued. The delivery of low-cost grey cloth in Changxing weaving Market is fast. A small number of domestic orders are issued in autumn, and foreign trade orders are issued one after another. Some factories say that the orders are 2-3 weeks, and the orders are more, up to about 4 weeks.

Business analysts believe that near the end of the month and with the launch of autumn orders in the textile market, the atmosphere for raw material procurement has improved, but they are cautious in chasing the rise. PTA raw material will continue to warm in the short term under the tightening expectation. It is still necessary to close the dynamics of oil injection Market and guard against the risk of price decline after typhoon weather speculation. It is expected that in the short term, supported by favorable costs, the price of polyester filament will remain the main player, but the increase will be narrowed.

1、 Price trend

The price of toluene fell this week, according to the data from the business news agency’s block list. On July 11, the price of toluene was 5860 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (July 18) was 5780 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton or 1.37% compared with last week; It was 69.5% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the early stage, the toluene market was driven by the rise of crude oil, and the demand remained weak. This week, the international crude oil showed a decline as a whole, and Sinopec’s listing price was lowered, which aggravated the wait-and-see situation of toluene Market. In terms of external market, as of July 16, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 756 US dollars / ton, up 15 US dollars / ton, or 2.02%, from July 9.

In terms of crude oil, it is reported that OPEC + has reached an agreement or will further increase production from August. In addition, the spread of the mutated virus also depressed oil prices, and crude oil showed a downward trend this week. On July 9, Brent fell by $1.96 per barrel, or 2.59%; WTI fell $2.75 per barrel, or 3.69%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable this week, with domestic goods at 14333.33 yuan / ton, up 36.51% over the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is deadlocked in consolidation operation, the atmosphere in the market is rather wait-and-see, the enthusiasm of the downstream is not high, the purchase is mainly rigid demand, the offer of the goods holder is high, and the intention to sell is not high, and the market transaction is general.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable for two consecutive weeks this week, at 7100 yuan / ton, up 47.92% year-on-year. As of July 16, the closing prices in Asia were US $903-905 / T FOB Korea and US $921-923 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Downstream demand maintains just demand, crude oil has downward pressure, and toluene is expected to hold a stalemate next week. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline blending market) on toluene prices.

Recent trend of sulfuric acid price

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of sulfuric acid Market in Shandong rose this week, from 643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 670.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.15%, 56.73% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 104.28 on July 16.

Downstream market boosted, purchasing intention strengthened

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose this week, the inventory of manufacturers was general, and the downstream demand was good. The quotation of Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid at the weekend is 730 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 630 yuan / ton this weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 650 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has been consolidated at a high level recently, with the quoted price of 1646.67 yuan / ton, which is 164.17% higher than that in the same period of last year, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the bromine market in the lower reaches was consolidated at a high level, with the quoted price of about 45300.00 yuan / ton this week, up 71.96% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products have a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

After a small shock fell

In late July, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong may fluctuate and fall slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. However, the price of bromine in the lower reaches has begun to decline slightly, the purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the sulfuric acid market or small shocks down.

Commodity: SC crude oil

Price: 427.9 yuan / ton

Analysis: on Monday, crude oil fell significantly in the internal market, with main contract 08 closing at 427.9 yuan / ton, down 2.42%. Overnight crude oil remained weak, hovering at a low level. Main reasons: at the macro level, the US Federal Reserve is wavering under high inflation, and the US CPI rose more than expected in June. The market is generally worried about the tightening of monetary policy caused by high inflation pressure. At the same time, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have implemented policies and reached an agreement on increasing production. The market expects that supply will increase. Under the severe trend of multi-national epidemic situation, the implementation of blockade measures to suppress fuel demand, etc.

Forecast: the business community believes that the recent crude oil market will be affected by the news, which will aggravate the shock. In the medium term, the epidemic has repeatedly reduced the demand for crude oil, and the future supply is not optimistic. Shale oil in the United States and OPEC oil producing countries are increasing production. With the passage of the North American driving season, there may be downward risks in oil prices, so it is recommended to wait and see carefully.