According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of May 6, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 13666 yuan / ton. Compared with May 1 (the ex factory price of butanone was 13800 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 134 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.97%. Compared with April 1 (the ex factory price of butanone refers to 14933 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1267 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.48%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in April, the domestic butanone market fell as a whole. Under the influence of insufficient demand and logistics factors, the transmission of butanone supply and demand was slow, and the market ran all the way down. In May, during the Labor Day holiday, the domestic butanone market was calm, and the market was mainly sorted and operated. After the festival, the boost of domestic demand in the downstream of butanone was not obvious. On the 5th, the quotation of some butanone factories was adjusted downward, with an adjustment range of 200-300 yuan per ton. The holders of butanone in South China were not willing to lower their prices, and the quotation was mainly multidimensional and stable. On the 6th, the overall butanone market fell slightly again, and the domestic ex factory price of butanone was around 13300-13600 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of butanone on the floor is general, the downstream wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the overall transaction of new orders is flat.

In the upstream, during the May Day holiday, the overall trend of the domestic liquefied gas market is relatively strong, the civil gas market in Shandong is steadily rising, the market supply remains low, the supply pressure is not large, in terms of demand, the downstream purchase rises into the market, the enthusiasm is OK, the market trading atmosphere is mild, the factory inventory has a strong mentality, and the price is relatively strong. It is expected that the price of liquefied gas market will continue to be strong in the short term. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on May 5, the reference price of liquefied gas was 6446 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.67% compared with May 1 (6340 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the raw material support of butanone cost is acceptable, and the room for field operators to continue to make profits is limited. The butanone data division of business society believes that in the short term, the butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes of butanone supply and demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cocoon and silk market price was slightly adjusted this week (may 2-may 6). As of May 6, the average price of the dry cocoon market remained 128000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 0.39% year-on-year. The average market price of raw silk was 390125 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from the beginning of the week and 1.55% year-on-year. This month, the market is dominated by narrow consolidation, and the trend is calm.

In terms of the purchase price of spring cocoons, the purchase price of spring cocoons in all parts of Guangxi continues to be listed, and the purchase price of spring cocoons has increased slightly. At present, the purchase price in Yizhou is maintained at about 44-46 yuan / kg, that in Liucheng county is maintained at about 43-46 yuan / kg, that in Xincheng County is maintained at about 40-42 yuan / kg, that in Huanjiang County is maintained at about 40-45 yuan / kg, and that in Napo County is maintained at about 44-48 yuan / kg, The purchase price of Pingguo County is maintained at about 46-47 yuan / kg, which forms a certain support for the recent price.

In terms of demand, there is not much good news in the downstream consumer market. The spot price is weak and stable, the transaction is light, the downstream production and sales are weak, the product shipment in the end consumer market is not smooth, the downstream weaving, processing and production enterprises purchase on demand, and there is still a lack of substantive guarantee for the promotion of the market. In the future, it will continue to consolidate in a narrow range.

Business analysts believe that the upstream raw material supply is sufficient and the cocoon cost has a certain support for the market, but the downstream demand has not recovered significantly. Raw silk lacks the basis for forming a long-term upward trend, and the probability of continuous shock consolidation in the future market is still too high.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of April 29, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.92% from the beginning of the month and 6.43% from the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of April 29, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24166.67 yuan / ton, down 3.33% from the beginning of the month and up 6.93% from the same period last year

2、 Market analysis

In April, the refrigerant R22 market was stable and upward, the enterprise quotation was increased, and the focus was higher. In April, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid rose, and the cost support was OK. Moreover, in April, it entered the peak season, the demand support became stronger and stronger, and the manufacturers had strong support for the price. In addition, during the maintenance period in Dongyue, Shandong Province, the market supply decreased, and the prices of the operators rose. However, public health events affected the logistics of various places, and the shipment of enterprises was limited. The upward range of R22 was not large, with an increase of about 2% in the month. At present, the R22 market quotation is mostly in the range of 17500-18000 yuan / ton, about 17500-18000 yuan / ton in Shandong, about 17500-18000 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 17500-18000 yuan / ton in Hunan and about 18000 yuan / ton in Guangzhou.

In April, the market of refrigerant R134a continued to decline, the quotation of enterprises fell frequently, and the focus shifted downward. In April, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid increased, but the price of trichloroethylene decreased, the cost support weakened, coupled with the poor demand for downstream vehicles, the shipment pressure of refrigerant enterprises, the sales pressure was large, the mentality of operators was pessimistic, and the price of R134a fell. At present, the market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 22000-26000 yuan / ton, about 23000-24500 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 22000-22500 yuan / ton in Hunan and about 24000 yuan / ton in Guangzhou.

In terms of raw materials, on April 28, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the supply of goods was normal, the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid increased slightly, and the recent slight rise of fluorite price had a certain supporting impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. In addition, the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was still at a low level, the actual demand was at a low level, and the procurement of hydrofluoric acid was limited, Recently, the refrigerant price has decreased slightly, but the hydrofluoric acid unit has operated stably recently. It is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain stable.

3、 Future forecast

According to refrigerant analysts of business society, refrigerant R22 rose and R134a fell in April. The overall market is weak, and it is difficult to find short-term benefits. It is expected to continue the weakness.

According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply in April. As of the end of the month, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8137.5 yuan / ton, down 6.87% from the price of 8737.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 24.47% year-on-year. The market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply in April, and the marketing of phthalic anhydride market was normal.

Since April, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field is poor, the price of upstream raw material o-benzene has fallen sharply, the plasticizer market has fallen, bad factors have affected the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has fallen sharply. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of upstream phthalic anhydride is declining. Affected by this, the phthalic anhydride market is lower. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has risen, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 7900-8100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 7800-7900 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8000-8200 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride is affected by negative factors in the field.

In April, the price trend of domestic orthobenzene fell, with the on-site price of 8200 yuan / ton, down 8.89% from the price of 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The decline of domestic orthobenzene price is the negative impact of the phthalic anhydride market. In April, the market trend of imported orthobenzene in the port area fell, and the external quotation of orthobenzene fell sharply. Recently, the inventory of orthobenzene in the port area increased, and the external quotation of orthobenzene fell mainly. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the actual order is discussed in detail, The price of o-benzene fell sharply, the price of raw material o-benzene was bad, the domestic phthalic anhydride market price, and the phthalic anhydride market price fell sharply.

In April, the market price trend of DOP downstream of phthalic anhydride declined. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 11775 yuan / ton by the end of the month, with a price decline of 4.27%. The construction of DOP enterprises in the field was stable, the supply of DOP was sufficient, and the price trend declined in April. The downstream market remains weak, the downstream demand is stable, and the market transaction is general. The market trend of plasticizer DOP declined, and the transaction price was subject to the real-time price. The DOP price was 11500-11900 yuan / ton, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market fell due to the impact.

On the whole, the plasticizer market is OK, and most units of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operate stably. However, the market price of ortho benzene has remained stable recently, and the downstream plasticizer industry has an upward trend. On the whole, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride may rise slightly in the later stage.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of Shandong market on April 29 was 5172.505 yuan / ton, down 0.80% from 5213.75 yuan / ton on April 15. In late April, the price of refined petroleum coke first fell and then rose, and the overall price decreased slightly.

On April 29, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 402.29, the same as yesterday, down 0.80% from the highest point of 405.52 in the cycle (2022-04-17), and up 501.42% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in late April, the price of refined petroleum coke first fell and then rose. At present, refinery shipments are active, downstream carbon enterprises purchase before the festival, and the local coking price is partially callback. However, at the end of the month, downstream enterprises have great capital pressure and strong market wait-and-see mood.

Upstream: the international crude oil shock in April was mainly due to the lower than expected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories. The market is still dominated by concerns about tight global oil supply in the future. The market is intertwined with long and short, the global economic recovery slows down, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the domestic epidemic suppresses demand, and oil prices are under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations, limiting the decline in oil prices, and the recent crude oil price range has fluctuated.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained stable in late April; Metal silicon market fell; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell. As of April 29, the price was 20826.67 yuan / ton. At present, the cost of downstream carbon enterprises is upside down, the capital is tight, the pressure of receiving goods is great, and most of them purchase on demand.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts expect that the price of Petroleum Coke will be high, while the price of Petroleum Coke will be high in the lower reaches, while analysts expect that the price of Petroleum Coke will be low, while the price of Petroleum Coke will be high in the lower reaches, but the price of Petroleum Coke will be strongly supported by the lower reaches. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may be mainly sorted out in the near future.

DOP prices fluctuated and fell in April

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOP fluctuated and fell in April, and the DOP market fell. As of April 30, the DOP price was 11775 yuan / ton, down 4.27% from 12300 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. Plasticizer DOP prices fell weakly.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic isooctanol market fluctuated and fell in April. As of April 30, the price of isooctanol was 12333.33 yuan / ton, down 3.9% from April 1 at the beginning of the month. In April, the epidemic prevention and control in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta were strengthened, the start-up of isooctanol enterprises decreased, the transportation was limited, the downstream start-up was low, the terminal demand was poor, and the overall isooctanol market weakened. The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOP decreased, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in April

According to the price monitoring of business society, the market of phthalic anhydride continued to decline in April, and the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. As of April 30, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8137.50 yuan / ton, down 6.87% from 8737.50 yuan / ton on April 1. In April, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline in March, the downstream plasticizer manufacturers started to adjust at a low level, the demand for phthalic anhydride was insufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell. The cost of DOP raw materials decreased, and the downward pressure on DOP prices increased.

Future expectations

According to the DOP data analyst of business agency, the prevention and control of domestic epidemic was strengthened in April, the start-up of plasticizer industrial chain was adjusted at a low level, the supply and demand of industrial chain were weak, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of DOP raw materials decreased; The downstream start-up was low, the downstream demand of DOP decreased by nearly half, and the downward pressure of DOP increased. May day is approaching recently. Downstream customers prepare goods, and DOP prices rebound and rise. In the future, after the festival, the stock will be replenished, and the price of plasticizer may rebound slightly, but the price of raw materials in the overall plasticizer industry chain will decline, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 28, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-grade cyclohexane was 9166.67 yuan / ton, and the price was mainly stable. Compared with the same period last month, the price increased slightly by 3.97%, and compared with the beginning of this month, the price increased by 1.1%. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 9000 yuan / ton, mainly maintaining stable operation, stable negotiation focus and normal supply.

In the first ten days of April, the average price of domestic industrial grade excellent product cyclohexane was 9100 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 8900 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply side was normal. The latest prices of enterprises: 8400 yuan / ton of Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd., 8600 yuan / ton of Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd., 8600 yuan / ton of Liaocheng yuanze chemical products Co., Ltd, Shandong ruishuang Chemical Co., Ltd. is 900 yuan / ton, and Shandong yushuo Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. As of April 8, the price of pure benzene in the upstream is 8500-8650 yuan / ton (the average price is 8580 yuan / ton). The average price is 50 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 0.59%, and 28.06% higher than the same period last year. The maintenance of pure benzene plant is concentrated, and the supply side is expected to tighten; Under the influence of public health events, the operating rate of pure benzene and main downstream units decreased. Under the influence of domestic public health events, the mentality of pure benzene market is poor and the short-term trend is weak.

In the middle of April, the cyclohexane market still operated stably, and the price fluctuated slightly. The average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 9133.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 9100 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane was balanced, and the downstream just needed procurement was the main. The focus of negotiation was stable and the supply side was normal. The latest price of the enterprise was 9200 yuan / ton of Pande (Shanghai) International Trade Co., Ltd, As of November, the price of Shandong chunrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. / shangrun Xinsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 9200 tons, and the price of Shandong chunrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. / Qingrun Chemical Co., Ltd. was lowered to 9200 tons. As of November, the price of Shandong chunrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. / Shangxin Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9200 tons. In April, the maintenance of pure benzene plant was concentrated, and the supply was tightened, which is expected to support the price of pure benzene. In the short term, the price of pure benzene is 8300-8650 yuan / ton.

In late April, the domestic cyclohexane market maintained a stable operation, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 9100 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane was balanced, and the downstream just needed procurement was the main. The focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply side was normal. The latest prices of enterprises: 9200 yuan / ton for Pende (Shanghai) International Trade Co., Ltd., 9200 yuan / ton for Nanjing Runsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd., 9200 yuan / ton for Shandong Zhiying new materials Co., Ltd, Nantong Runfeng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 9200 yuan / ton, and Wuhan Jixin Yibang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. is 9200 yuan / ton.

Chemical index: on April 27, the chemical index was 1166 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 16.71% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 94.98% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business society, the cyclohexane market is expected to operate smoothly in the short term, and the mainstream price range is about 9000-9200 yuan / ton. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

In April, the domestic dimethyl ether Market showed a trend of first strength and then weakness, and the overall focus of Henan market shifted downward. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4156.67 yuan / ton on April 1 and 4095.00 yuan / ton on April 26, with a decline of 1.48% during the month and an increase of 8.62% compared with March 1.

As of April 26, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province, 4320 yuan / ton

Hebei Province, 4300 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 4020-4120 yuan / ton

In April, the overall trend of domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak. The market in Henan showed a trend of first high and then low, with a decline greater than the increase. The market prices in Shandong and Hebei were weak and consolidated. In the first half of the month, due to the favorable rise in the civil market of liquefied gas, the dimethyl ether Market was stable and upward, and the market inventory pressure was small. The manufacturers shipped more smoothly and had a strong mentality. In the second half of the month, the market was obviously bearish. The raw material methanol market fell significantly, the cost support was insufficient, the civil market of liquefied gas was weak, the downstream mentality was cautious, mainly on the sidelines, and the price of dimethyl ether weakened. Near the end of the month, affected by the parking and maintenance of some manufacturers, the price rebounded, but the market was not good, and the rebound range was limited.

On April 26, the transaction of methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province was 2660-2680 yuan / ton, which was delivered to cash exchange. The transaction was general, and the early-stage contract was mostly executed. The negotiated price of methanol market in Zibo, Shandong Province was 2680-2690 yuan / ton, which was sent to cash exchange. The ex factory cash exchange of local factories fell to 2900-3000 yuan / ton, and the transaction was poor. The methanol market in Henan fell. The bidding transaction price of Henan energy is 2600 yuan / ton, and the factory will withdraw cash exchange, while the quotation of other enterprises will be reduced. The factory reference is 2700 yuan / ton, and the factory will withdraw cash exchange; The offer in Luoyang market fell to 2600-2610 yuan / ton.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is weak and falling, and the civil price of related products liquefied gas is mixed. The overall trend is weak, and there is no obvious positive support in the market. However, near the May Day holiday, there is a certain replenishment demand before the downstream Festival, the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong, and the price continues to rise slightly. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market may weaken in May.

According to the reference price of butanone (1459300 tons / day), the average price of butanone decreased by 26.90% as of February 2023, compared with the average price of 1459300 tons / day in the domestic market.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in April, the domestic butanone market generally went down. In the first ten days of April, after returning from the Qingming holiday, on the 7th, the domestic butanone market ushered in a slight rise. The ex factory price of butanone increased by about 100 yuan / ton. Most of the rise came from the support given by the tight inventory at the supply side. The overall boost on the downstream demand side was general, and the butanone market was mostly stable and consolidated. On the 14th, the low-end price of butanone in Shandong moved up by 100 yuan / ton, and other factories and spot traders mostly made stable quotations. As of April 15, the ex factory price of domestic butanone is around 15000-15200 yuan / ton, and the high-end price is around 15400 yuan / ton.

In late April, the trading atmosphere in the domestic butanone market was always tepid. Due to the influence of logistics and transportation and other factors, the downstream demand was restricted. On the 19th, the domestic butanone factory in Shandong reduced the ex factory price of butanone by 200 yuan / ton to 14700 yuan / ton. The atmosphere of butanone on-site trading was light, and the overall operating rate of butanone was low due to the maintenance of devices in some parts of China. The pressure of spot supply of butanone was small, and many factories made stable quotations. On the 20th, Shandong factory slightly callback the price of butanone, increasing the range by 100 yuan / ton to 14800 yuan / ton. However, the downstream demand support is weak, the supply and demand circulation is slow, and the transaction volume of butanone is limited. Since the 22nd, the domestic butanone market has been running downward again. The on-site supply and demand is deadlocked, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the demand follow-up is insufficient. As of the 26th, the ex factory price of domestic butanone is around 14000-14700 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price is reduced by 300-700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.9% in the month. At present, the on-site trading of butanone is still cautious, focusing on real orders and more negotiations.

In the upstream, according to the monitoring data of the business society, as of April 25, the reference price of liquefied gas was 6380 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.75% compared with April 1 (6270 yuan / ton). On April 25, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2206 was 6030, the highest price was 6049, the lowest price was 5761, the closing price was 5799, the former settlement price was 6121, the settlement price was 5897, down 322, down 5.26%, the trading volume was 140726, the position was 61332, and the daily position was increased by – 475. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the bearish sentiment in the downstream of butanone is heavy, the confidence of operators is weak, and the butanone factory has a certain shipping pressure. The butanone data division of business society believes that in the short term, the market situation of butanone is mostly weak, and the effective support in the field is still insufficient. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the news changes of supply and demand and the changes of environmental factors in the field.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 25, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 160000 yuan / ton. It was mainly purchased in the downstream, and the overall market operated smoothly. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, some manufacturers are shut down, the supply of goods is tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the arrangement and delivery of contract customers, the number of new orders is limited, the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the price remains high, and the upstream remains high, Continued price support operation, lithium iron phosphate cost pressure still exists.

As of April 21, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 470000 yuan / ton. Lithium carbonate analysts of business society believe that the impact of the current epidemic continues and the impact on the demand side still exists. With the weakening support of high price lithium salt, there is a dumping sentiment in the market, which puts pressure on the price of lithium carbonate. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the short term will be weak and volatile.

Chemical commodity index: on April 24, the chemical index was 1171 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 16.36% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 95.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be dominated in the short term, and the supply of spot goods is tight. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).