According to the data monitored by the business club, the PP market fell this week, and the spot price of the wire drawing brand decreased overall. As of June 17, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8725 yuan / ton, up or down -1.13% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose steadily this week. Propylene supply decreased due to the overhaul of a plant in Shandong, boosting market confidence. Downstream market demand is mainly just demand, fast in and fast out, and the overall market is still in a situation of supply exceeding demand. It is expected that the propylene market may decline in the near future.

Propylene prices rose steadily, crude oil fell at a high level due to the Fed’s interest rate hike, and PP cost side support was acceptable this week. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises fell due to the maintenance of some devices, and the supply decreased, but the inventory of enterprises and midstream increased compared with the previous period. On the demand side, the downstream factories follow up the purchase slowly, have strong resistance to the high price supply, and the market trading is light. Traders’ shipments follow the market, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is adjusted in a narrow range, and the main support in the market comes from the upstream support. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will continue to be weak.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of June 17, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell as a whole. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic producers and traders was about 8766.67 yuan / ton, up or down -1.31% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of +1.94%. This week, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials started their business in a generally horizontal way. The products of the end enterprises maintained the off-season mode and took goods to maintain production. In terms of medical fiber products, cooling is required, and the rigid support is weakened. The supply side is abundant and the market momentum is reduced. It is expected that the fiber material will remain weak in the off-season market in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market fell this week. As of June 17, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business club was about 9650 yuan / ton, up or down -1.19% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in China has gradually decreased, and the epidemic prevention pressure has eased. At the same time, medical meltblown cloth materials have entered the off-season of consumption, and the demand has decreased. The supply of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Together with the shipping resistance, it puts pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may remain weak.

Aftermarket forecast

According to PP analysts of business agency, the domestic polypropylene market fell this week. Although the raw material propylene and international crude oil market fell, the main support in the market is still the cost side. The demand of terminal enterprises develops slowly, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the recent PP market may continue the weak adjustment market.

On June 15, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $115.31/barrel, down US $3.62 or 3.04%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $118.51/barrel, down US $2.66 or 2.20%. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike of 75 basis points higher than expected, which was the largest interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the past 30 years. The market was disturbed by macro bad news, and the expectations of demand setback put pressure on oil prices. Both WTI and Brent of international crude oil futures fell to a two-week low.

On Friday, the data released by the US Department of labor showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.0% month on month and 8.6% year on year in May, hitting a new high in 40 years. The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike brought the oil market back from its high point, and the international oil price returned to below $120. However, as the fundamentals of supply and demand have not changed, tight supply is expected to make the oil price relatively strong.

On Wednesday, the decline in oil prices widened, mainly due to the disturbance of the news that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates more than expected. On June 15 local time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates by 75 basis points to curb soaring inflation. This is also the largest rate hike by the Federal Reserve since 1994. The interest rate hike may have a negative impact on the economy. While curbing inflation, it may hurt demand, so it will bring upward resistance to the rising oil price.

Can oil prices return to the upward channel in the future?

On the supply side, under the background of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, European and American oil sanctions against Russia will continue to reduce its supply. At present, the global market has reduced the supply of crude oil by about 2million barrels per day. And in the short term, the supplier is unable to make up for this loss. Although OPEC, the oil producing country, has increased its growth rate from 400000 barrels per day to 650000 barrels per day, and there are rumors of reserve release in the market, it is a drop in the bucket either from the poor residual production capacity of OPEC or from the short-term behavior of reserve release. Therefore, the medium and long-term supply pressure is still on, which still plays a strong supporting role in oil prices.

On the demand side, in the medium term, the peak driving season in summer in Europe and the United States will still bring a stable increase to the oil market. In addition, the epidemic situation in Asia has eased, and the relaxation of restrictive measures will also stimulate some demand. On the whole, short-term demand is still strong, which will also be good for oil prices, and the oil market will still return to the upward channel. In the medium and long term, under the background of high inflation in the United States, the Fed’s interest rate hike may further hurt demand. This will also bring uncertainty to the market. On the whole, oil prices are still strong in the short term. In the medium term, it may be affected by the global high inflation and the increased expectation of interest rate hike, or further hurt demand; In addition, in the long run, with the enhanced substitution of new energy for traditional fossil energy, the oil market is far from or under pressure.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda was consolidated. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1246 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1250 yuan / ton, up 0.32% and 139.23% compared with the same period last year. On June 9, the commodity index of caustic soda was 179.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.25% from the highest point of 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 176.24% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business agency, the domestic caustic soda price was consolidated this week. The mainstream price of caustic soda in Shandong is about 1150-1300 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1200-1400 yuan / ton. The overall trading of the market has not changed much, and the overall trading has maintained the previous level. There is no inventory pressure for caustic soda enterprises, but alumina manufacturers mostly purchase on demand, so the wait-and-see mood should linger on the site, and the market of liquid caustic soda is stable and small.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 22nd week of 2022 (5.30-6.3), there were 0 rising commodities, 1 falling commodities and 4 rising commodities. The main commodities falling were caustic soda (-0.32%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.06%.

Analysts of the business community believe that recently, the price of caustic soda has been operating steadily and dynamically, the enterprise inventory is not high, and the downstream oxidation is mainly purchased on demand. The two sides play a game between supply and demand. It is comprehensively estimated that the subsequent consolidation of the market of caustic soda will be mainly based on the downstream market demand.

This week (6.6-10), the domestic liquid ammonia market continued to fall. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and Hubei have declined to varying degrees. The cumulative weekly decline is 100-200 yuan / ton. The market supply has changed and the ammonia supply has increased. However, the demand for chemical fertilizer in the downstream is weak, and the resistance to high prices has further suppressed some rigid demand. Lower downstream prices, terminal prices have also been lower. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of May 20, the current weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 0.63%, and the weekend mainstream quotation range is 4900-5150 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many domestic places increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the overall supply pressure increased. Previously, due to the high price of urea in the downstream, the majority of urea was transferred to the downstream, and the amount of ammonia decreased. However, the ammonia price has rebounded recently, and the amount of ammonia released by enterprises has increased significantly. Therefore, the overall supply of liquid ammonia surged, and the short-term surge in supply led to partial excess.

Affected by the regulation policies, the upstream coal prices maintain the previous level. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. The price of natural gas also declined, easing the cost pressure of gas head enterprises. According to the monitoring of the business agency, LNG fell by 2.20% this week.

Demand side

From the terminal point of view, the downstream demand for liquid ammonia remained rigid and the price of urea remained stable at a high level. The price rebounded slightly, with an increase of 1.5%. The agricultural demand increases, and the industrial demand is dominated by the rigid demand. In the northern wheat harvest area, the agricultural demand is appropriately followed up, and some southern areas purchase on demand. The enterprises of compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants started their business in general, mainly just needed to purchase. The price of melamine fell slightly, and their enthusiasm for urea purchasing weakened. From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea is about 170000 tons, which is at a high level, but the factory inventory and social inventory are at a low level, and the supply of goods in some regions is tight.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, deeper than that of urea, and the price difference between them has widened. However, it is still at a reasonable level.

According to the above figure, the profit of liquid ammonia industrial chain continues to improve, the price of natural gas in the upstream of gas head drops, and the price of coal remains weak due to the impact of policies, which is conducive to easing the pressure on downstream costs. In the middle and lower reaches, the majority of the market also rose, and the profits of enterprises increased. The profits of liquid ammonia, urea and compound fertilizer increased significantly compared with the previous period.

Aftermarket forecast

The business agency believes that at present, the domestic liquid ammonia market price continues to loosen, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is obvious. As the agricultural demand enters the off-season, the liquid ammonia may have a downward risk.

The price of DBP fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the business club, the DBP price fell this week, and the overall DBP market fell. As of June 13, the price of DBP was 10250.00 yuan / ton, down 2.54% from 10516.67 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week. The raw material cost of DBP fell this week, and the plasticizer market fell.

The price of normal butanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of n-butanol first rose and then fell this week, and the market of n-butanol fell. On June 13, the price of n-butanol was 9833.33 yuan / ton, down 2.32% from 10066.67 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week. This week, the transaction volume of n-butanol decreased, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell violently, the cost of DBP decreased, the upward momentum of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. The price of n-butanol fell violently, and the upward momentum of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride rose violently this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of phthalic anhydride rose violently this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose. As of June 6, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8650 yuan / ton, up 4.22% from 8300 yuan / ton on June 6. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride raw material o-xylene rose sharply, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of DBP raw materials rose, and the cost support of DBP increased.

Aftermarket expectation

According to the DBP data analyst of business agency, in terms of raw materials, the price of butanol fell this week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose this week, and the overall cost of plasticizer DBP fell. In the future, DBP demand recovers slowly

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4630 yuan / ton, unchanged from the price of 4630 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 33.05%.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably, the recent on-site supply of goods was normal, the on-site delivery was normal, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the upstream liquid ammonia price trend of the terminal was temporarily stable, the nitric acid price rose, and the ammonium nitrate price remained high supported. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, the downstream is purchased on demand, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is supported recently. However, the sales of domestic downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started high. Affected by the rise of raw materials, the price of ammonium nitrate has remained high recently. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 5000-5200 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 4500-4700 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 5200-5300 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2800 yuan / ton, up 4.35% from 2683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Ningxia Runxia Energy & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 2750 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 3150 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the concentrated nitric acid market supply is normal, and the delivery of goods in the site has improved. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the site has risen. The high price of raw nitric acid is good for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia fell slightly this week. By the end of the week, the price of liquid ammonia was 5223.33 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from the price of 5256.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The liquid ammonia Market in the domestic liquid ammonia market fell slightly, and the market rose or fell by a small margin. Some large factories made downward moves, with a range of 50 yuan. The dealers mainly reported the price and delivered goods. At present, the market price is still at a relatively high level. At present, the amount of ammonia in the region is moderate, and the supply and demand are mainly in short balance. However, the downstream is generally resistant to high priced raw materials, and most transactions need to be maintained. The mainstream price in the market is 5100-5200 yuan / ton. The falling price of upstream liquid ammonia has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The market demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened, and the market price of liquid ammonia has declined. However, the price of nitric acid has risen. The spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal, and the demand has not improved significantly. However, the raw material price is high. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate will remain high in the later period.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from June 2 to 9, the domestic ethanol market fell in a narrow range. On June 2, the average price of domestic ethanol producers was 7516 yuan / ton. On June 9, the price fell to 7466 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.67%, fell by 0.44% month on month, and the price rose by 8.61% year on year.

Due to the gradual increase in the number of raw wheat listed, the auction of aged rice and other factors, enterprises are more cautious in acquisition, the feed demand is relatively weak, and the corn price is weak. Some units in some regions have maintenance plans, and some units that have been shut down for a long time will soon resume normal production. There is no significant change in the supplier in the short term. In terms of demand, whether it is Baijiu or ethyl acetate downstream of chemical industry, the recent demand is good.

In terms of raw materials, the price of raw corn is weak. Raw cassava dry inventory sales, weak demand performance, low purchasing enthusiasm, and stable price in the short term

Comparison chart of corn (upstream raw material) – ethanol price trend of shanghaishe:

In terms of downstream products, with the further warming of the weather, the downstream Baijiu has entered the off-season; In terms of chemical industry, the demand for ethyl acetate is relatively stable. At the end of this month, Shandong large plant has a startup plan to pay attention to; The demand of downstream pharmaceutical industry performs well and is expected to continue.

Comparison chart of price trend of ethanol ethyl acetate (downstream product) of Business Club:

As of June 9, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, Category, Price

Guangxi, Honey alcohol, 8200 yuan / ton

Guangxi, Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol, 7650-7800 yuan / ton

Guangxi, Anhydrous ethanol, 8350-8450 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong, Corn alcohol, 7700-7750 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong region Rice / Cassava general ethanol, 7700-7750 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong, Anhydrous cassava ethanol, 8450-8550 yuan / ton Dongguan self delivery

Sichuan region, Corn alcohol, 8100 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Yunnan region, Molasses alcohol, 8200-8250 yuan / ton

Henan region, Superior, 7340-7350 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Henan region, Anhydrous ethanol, 8150 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Hebei region, General grade, 7350-7400 yuan / ton, tax included

Shandong region, Common wheat, 7350-7400 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Superior corn, 7800-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Corn has no water, 8300 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu, General grade, 7600-7650 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, General grade, 7300-7400 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, Superior, 7500-7550 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, No water, 8300-8400 yuan / ton

Anhui region, General grade, 7400-7550 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui region ., No water, 8300 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Jinzhou District, Liaoning Province, Corn alcohol general grade, 7400-7500 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang region, General grade, 6900-7100 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang region, Anhydrous ethanol, 7900-8000 yuan / ton

Jilin region, Ordinary alcohol, 7200-7300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Premium alcohol, 7300-7350 yuan / ton ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Anhydrous ethanol, 8050-8300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

The price of raw corn may be weak, and the cost support is not strong. The supply side is stopped and started, and there is no obvious change. The downstream inventory consumption is difficult to be improved in the short term. The ethanol analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic ethanol market will be mainly low in the short term.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (June 8):4133.33 yuan / ton

On June 8, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly, down 66.67 yuan / ton, or 1.59%, compared with that on June 7, and 1.20% year-on-year, compared with the same period last year. The price of raw material orchid charcoal has risen slightly recently. At present, Shenmu orchid charcoal is about 1700-1900 yuan / ton, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. The downstream PVC market recently stopped falling and rose, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement increased.

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly, and the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 4200 yuan / ton.

I Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the average price of EPS common materials at the beginning of this week was 10875 yuan / ton, and the average price of EPS common materials at the weekend was 11000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.15% and 2.22% compared with the same period of the year.

II quotations analysis

Domestic EPS prices strengthened slightly this month. The trend of crude oil is strong. After the holiday, the prices of pure benzene and styrene and EPS are rising. The market demand is picking up. The terminal just needs replenishment. The overall trading is OK.

The crude oil was relatively strong, the styrene rose sharply, the cost was boosted, and the terminal prepared an appropriate amount of goods. However, due to the impact of the local epidemic, some merchants were cautious in trading, and the overall transaction was good. The delivery at the end of the month may boost the mentality of styrene and pure benzene merchants. The supply side and demand side, the northeast and northwest demand are significantly weakened, the East China demand is poor, and the South China and southwest demand are weakened. It is expected that the market demand will decrease slightly next week.

III Aftermarket forecast

The price of domestic EPS has been increased. The ex factory price of common materials is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, and that of barrier fuel is 12000-12100 yuan / ton.

The domestic epoxy resin market continued to decline, mainly due to the decline of both raw materials and liquid resin market. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the offer of liquid epoxy resin Market in East China on May 30 fell by 800-1000 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the negotiation was at 24800-25300 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan compared with last weekend. The liquid resin Market in East China offers 24800-25300 yuan / ton in barrels, and the solid resin Market in Shandong offers 21500-22200 yuan / ton.

region ., Specifications., offer

East China, E51., 24800-25300

Shandong region, E12., 21500-22000

Raw material bisphenol A: at the end of the month and the beginning of the week, the spot negotiation of bisphenol A was light, and the focus fell again. The offer of East China was 15100-15200 yuan / ton, while the offer of other factories was suspended, and the offer of lihuayi was 15100 yuan / ton. Today, the bidding of Zhejiang Petrochemical fell 200-300 yuan / ton again compared with last week, making the bisphenol a market worse. Today, the market became more bearish and the downward speed of the market accelerated. Since the market continued to decline in late May, the holders have been selling goods at a lower price. Although the raw material phenol ketone rose, it had little impact on the market. The downstream continued to fall and the trading volume was difficult to improve. The short-term market was still dominated by bad news. After a sharp decline, the holders’ intention to sell at a lower price weakened. Recently, they have paid attention to the downstream procurement and factory price adjustment.

The high level of epichlorohydrin market fell back. The reference price of epichlorohydrin in East China market was 18400 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan compared with the previous week. After the periodic replenishment, the downstream demand for high priced epichlorohydrin was not followed up enough, and the delivery of epichlorohydrin manufacturers was not smooth. At present, the price of glycerol is high, and the price has dropped to near the cost line of glycerol based cyclophosphamide, so the intention of glycerol based cyclophosphamide manufacturers to continue to lower is not high; However, at present, the gross profit of propylene based cyclophosphamide is about 8000 yuan / ton. During the week, the propylene based cyclophosphamide plant actively offered to ship goods at a profit, further reducing the focus of discussion in the cyclophosphamide market.

According to the analysts of the business agency, the offer of the epoxy resin factory after adjustment was temporarily stable and market-oriented. At the end of the month, bisphenol A fell significantly, and the environment chlorine was depressed. The overall market negotiation was cold, and the downstream demand side did not change. It is expected that the epoxy resin will continue to be depressed in the short term.