This week, the domestic BDO market fell significantly, and the market focus continued to decline. The main reason for the decline of the price market is the continuous intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand. Manufacturers and mainstream traders mostly sell goods at a profit. However, demand continues to be light, the operating rate of downstream industries is generally low, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials has declined, and the BDO market price has fallen again and again.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from June 27 to July 1, the domestic BDO market price fell from 21300 yuan / ton to 20200 yuan / ton, with a weekly price drop of 5.16%, a month on month price drop of 9.50%, and a year-on-year increase of 16.59%. In terms of market price, the mainstream of spot apron in East China negotiated 19500-19500 yuan / ton; The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 19500-19700 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw calcium carbide: with the reduction of external sales of supporting calcium carbide and the recovery of demand, the rebound sign of calcium carbide is expected to become more obvious. In the short term, the domestic calcium carbide market is stable and small, and the supply-demand game is strengthened.

In terms of methanol, the demand adjustment is limited, the production cost of methanol changes little, the port inventory is strong, if the supply margin weakens, the expectation is fulfilled, and the crude oil is strong, the domestic methanol market may rise tentatively in the short term. BDO cost side support weakened.

Downstream ptme plant – Henan plans to restart another set of PTMEG device in July, but Xiaoxing Jiaxing device has negative expectations in July, and the overall opening is slightly lower; The start-up of PBT industry increased slightly; The demand of gbl-nmp industrial chain has no obvious rise temporarily, and the commencement changes little; The load of downstream TPU and Pu pulp changes little, and small orders are mainly needed; The start-up of PBAT industry fell to 10%, and the production was slow under the cost of new capacity and sales pressure. On the whole, the short-term BDO demand has little change.

The supply side inventory is expected to increase, while some major factories in the downstream industry plan to reduce negative production. The imbalance between supply and demand continued, with major production enterprises mainly selling goods at a profit. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the domestic BDO market may still decline.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on June 30 was 97.15, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.88% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.20% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in late June (June 20-30) was stable at about 15900 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s production is normal and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, the enterprise has great shipping pressure, and the transaction is not easy.

Industry chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the domestic mainstream market fell from about 11080 yuan / ton to 10860 yuan / ton in late June (20-30 days), a decrease of 1.99%; Although propylene, the raw material, has rebounded slightly to 7996 yuan / ton recently, due to the great pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile market, market transactions are dominated by low-cost sources, and acrylonitrile prices continue to be low;

Raw material acrylic acid: the quotation in East China this ten days increased slightly by 0.72%. The mainstream production price in East China on the 20th was 13833.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th was 13933.33 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene market declined, the cost support weakened, the acrylic acid operating rate increased slightly, some enterprises were expected to overhaul their devices, the downstream operation was stable, the purchasing enthusiasm was general, the market mentality was different, and the trading atmosphere was light and stalemate.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the LNG market was in the off-season in June, and the demand support was weak. The domestic LNG price continued to decline, falling by 10.56% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. Among them, the decline of LNG in the first half of the month was 3.05%, and that in the second half of the month was 7.86%. Many liquid factories reduced prices and arranged warehouses, and liquid prices fell centrally. Near the end of the month, liquid prices in some regions rebounded slightly. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will be consolidated in the short term.

Future forecast: the cost of raw materials has fluctuated this ten days. The main factor for the stability of polyacrylamide market is that its downstream demand is flat, the market spot inventory is sufficient, and the transaction is general. It is expected that the future market will remain stable.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose slightly in June. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2661.11 yuan / ton, up 0.08% from the price of 2658.893 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 1.27% year-on-year.

In June, the price of fluorite rose slightly, and the on-site operation was general. Due to the blocked transportation of fluorite supply in some regions, the on-site spot fluorite was tight, the operating rate of fluorite devices in the North rose slowly, the on-site transaction atmosphere rose, and the price of fluorite rose slightly. Some units of domestic Southern fluorite manufacturers started up and restarted, the start-up of mines and flotation units in the site increased, the delivery of goods in the fluorite site was in good condition, some small factories were shut down, and the market price of fluorite rose slightly. In June, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price fell slightly, but the downstream terminal was mainly purchased on demand. By the end of the month, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite price rose slightly in June.

The downstream hydrofluoric acid market price of fluorite fell slightly this month. As of the end of the month, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 11640 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.26% in June. The decline of hydrofluoric acid market price has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the affected rise of fluorite price is limited.

The price of downstream refrigerant products remains low, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field remains low. Recently, the sales of the automotive industry has declined month on month, and the refrigerant market has not changed much. In terms of demand, the refrigerant industry mainly purchases on demand, and the refrigerant industry market has declined slightly. In the refrigerant market as a whole, the market is mainly declining, and the price trend of chloroform is declining, which makes the cost of the refrigerant industry decline. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 has dropped slightly. The main manufacturers of refrigerants are still not operating well. The market supply is normal, but the demand is general. The demand in R22 market application field is poor, and the enterprise quotation has declined slightly. Up to now, the R22 market quotation is in the range of 16000-17000 yuan / ton. The price of R134a in China rose slightly while the price of trichloroethylene remained low with limited cost support. The market price of R134a rose slightly and the focus of trading was low. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 18000-22000 yuan / ton. The high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise is eager to ship, and the actual transaction is mostly profitable. The downstream refrigerant market is depressed, so the fluorite price has little increase.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry remains depressed, but there are many enterprise devices restarted in the later stage. In addition, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the market is declining, and the negative factors affect it. In addition, the supply of fluorite in Inner Mongolia is increasing. Chen Ling, an analyst at the business agency, believes that it is difficult for the fluorite market price to rise in the short term, and the fluorite price may remain volatile.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of June 28, the average price of melamine enterprises was 9533.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.43% compared with the price on June 1, and a decrease of 20.11% over the same period of three months.

Melamine market fell in June. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material urea rose, the cost side was supported, and the operating rate of melamine increased, but the demand side was light, the enterprise sales were under pressure, the supply and demand pattern was weak, the market trading atmosphere was flat, and the price of melamine fell. In the second half of the month, the price of raw urea fell, the cost support gradually weakened, the supply side of melamine was sufficient, the demand side was still insufficient, the shipment of enterprises was not smooth, the market trading atmosphere was low, and the melamine market was weak.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market was temporarily stable on June 28. On June 27, the reference price of urea was 3103.00, a decrease of 3.06% compared with June 1 (3201.00).

Melamine analysts of the business agency believe that at present, the price of raw urea is temporarily stable, the cost support still exists, the downstream demand is cold, and the market mentality is depressed. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may operate weakly and stably, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of the business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 4683 yuan / ton on June 20, and 4666 yuan / ton on June 24. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 0.36% this week.

According to the data in the bulk list of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4333 yuan / ton on June 20, and 4333 yuan / ton on June 24. The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of raw phosphate rock was stable, the price of raw sulfur fell, the cost support weakened, and the monoammonium phosphate market fell slightly. The downstream compound fertilizer shall be purchased cautiously, and the goods shall be mainly taken as required. This week, the ex factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan was about 4700 yuan / ton, that of Anhui was about 4750 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan was about 4550 yuan / ton, and that of 58 powder ammonium was about 4750 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

This week, the raw sulfur market fell, the rise of diammonium phosphate was postponed, and the price was adjusted and operated at a high level. At present, the domestic market demand for diammonium is weak, the trading volume is reduced, and the focus is shifted to the export market. Domestic orders of some enterprises have been received, most manufacturers still suspend domestic quotation, and the supply of dealers is relatively small. This week, the market price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan was about 4700 yuan / ton, and the market price of 57% diammonium in Guizhou was about 4380 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

The price of raw phosphate rock was stable this week. The market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 920-950 yuan / ton. At present, a mining enterprise in Guizhou has resumed construction, with only a small amount of goods for external sales. Some mining enterprises in Guangxi mainly receive orders in advance, and the orders are scheduled to the middle of July. Recently, phosphorus ore of Hebei mining enterprises is mainly supplied to shareholder customers, and there is no external supply source for the time being.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analysts of the business society, the supply of raw ammonium phosphate rock is still tight, the price of raw sulfur is lowered, and the cost pressure is slowing down. The market is in the off-season, the downstream demand is low, and the turnover is reduced. It is expected that the price of ammonium phosphate will run down at a high level in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business club, the domestic ABS market was weak this week, and the spot prices of some brands were reduced. As of June 24, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 13200 yuan / ton, up or down -11.0% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell this week. The main reason is that the crude oil price fluctuated and the cost support of the petrochemical industry chain weakened, resulting in the decline of styrene. In the early stage, there were a lot of plant maintenance for styrene enterprises on the site, and the port inventory decreased. However, the current downstream demand is weak, the market transaction is weak, and the spot price is weak.

The price of acrylonitrile was stable and weak this week. At present, the load of acrylonitrile in the domestic industry is high. There are some maintenance production lines this week, and the pressure on the supply side has decreased narrowly. Demand tends to be lagging and weak, and the ex factory spot price is weak and stable. There is bullish sentiment in the future market, and the spot price may stabilize.

This week, the domestic butadiene market was low. Affected by the unexpected shutdown of some units in East China, the supply side news boosted the market atmosphere, but the overall demand was weak, which was difficult to provide effective support for the butadiene market. The main production enterprises in Northeast China auctioned for the supply of goods, which led to the continuous decline of prices. The broad decline of the market further affected the downstream inquiry mentality, and the market stopped rising and turned down.

This week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side had a poor trend, and the overall support weakened. In terms of industry load, recently, the operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited change, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. The current industry is in the off-season market, and the mentality of the industry is not strong. The tension in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine is still tense, but affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the crude oil price fluctuates, which is bad for the oil industry chain. The current market is mainly bad for the contraction of downstream demand in the off-season.

Future forecast:

According to the analysts of the business agency, the spot market of ABS fell this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant and demand follow-up is poor. It is expected that the ABS spot market may fall in a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business club, the domestic ABS market was weak this week, and the spot prices of some brands were reduced. As of June 17, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 13650 yuan / ton, up or down +2.25% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell this week. The main reason is that the crude oil price fell, which weakened the cost support of downstream chemicals, leading to the decline of styrene. In the early stage, there were a lot of on-site styrene plant maintenance and the port inventory decreased, but the current downstream demand is weak, the market transaction is weak, and the spot price is weak.

The price of acrylonitrile continued to weaken this week, the maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage was completed, the domestic industry load was high, the supply pressure was high, and the spot price continued to drag. On the demand side, it tends to be lagging and weak. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the ex factory spot price is under multiple pressures. In the future, there is an expectation of supply reduction, and the decline of spot price is limited.

The domestic butadiene market fell significantly this week, mainly due to the prominent contradiction between supply and demand: some units in East China were restarted, and the supply side was significantly supplemented. But at the same time, the downstream demand was relatively weak, and the synthetic rubber market fell, dragging down the market inquiry atmosphere. Under the drag of poor transaction, the butadiene market fell rapidly.

This week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side had a poor trend, and the overall support weakened. In terms of industry load, recently, the operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited change, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. Health incidents in East China have eased, and it will take some time for the market to fully recover. The market of the industry in the off-season gradually stands, and the mentality of the industry is not strong. The tension in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine remained, but affected by the Federal Reserve, crude oil fell at a high level, which was bad for the petrochemical industry chain. The current market is mainly bad for the contraction of downstream demand in the off-season.

Future forecast:

According to the analysts of the business agency, the ABS spot market was weak and stable this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant and demand follow-up is poor. It is expected that the ABS spot market may fall in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of the business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 4683 yuan / ton on June 13, and 4683 yuan / ton on June 17. The price of monoammonium phosphate was stable this week.

According to the data in the bulk list of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4200 yuan / ton on June 13, and 4333 yuan / ton on June 17. The price of diammonium phosphate rose by 3.17% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of raw phosphate rock continued to rise this week, and the cost support was favorable. The price of raw sulfur and synthetic ammonia fell. The supply of Monoammonium is tight, some enterprises’ quotation is suspended, and a small number of orders are received. The downstream compound fertilizer is purchased on demand, and the enthusiasm is not high. This week, the factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan was about 4800 yuan / ton, that in Anhui was about 4700 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan was about 4550 yuan / ton, and that in 58 was about 4750 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

This week, the supply of raw phosphate rock is in short supply, the price continues to run at a high level, and diammonium phosphate continues to rise. At present, the domestic market of diammonium is short of spot, the downstream procurement is cautious, the demand is weakened, and the focus is shifted to the export market. At present, most manufacturers have suspended their quotation, restricted the receipt of orders, mainly issued early-stage orders, and dealers are cautious to wait and see. This week, the market price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan was about 4600 yuan / ton, and the market price of 57% diammonium in Guizhou was about 4380 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

Raw phosphate rock market. This week, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to hit a high level, the supply of phosphorus ore in the site continued to be tight, and the market focus continued to rise. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou resumed mining, and only a small amount of inventory was shipped out. The tight situation of spot circulation of high-end phosphorus ore in the market has not improved much. In Guizhou, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 920-950 yuan / ton. At present, most of the phosphate rocks of large mining enterprises in Guizhou and Hubei are for their own use after production, and there is no external sales source, and most of the enterprises that can supply them have a strong reluctance to sell, so they receive orders in advance and give priority to single discussion.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analyst of the business society, the supply of raw phosphate rock is still tight, the raw sulfur has started to callback, and the cost support is still on. Low downstream demand and limited market transactions. It is expected that the high price of ammonium phosphate will be mainly adjusted and operated in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 20, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9100 yuan / ton, which was 733 yuan / ton lower than that on June 15, a decrease of 7.46%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province is generally weak and runs downward in the recent (6.15-6.21). On the 16th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong decreased slightly by 100 yuan / ton. Among them, the price of n-butanol in North China of Shandong Wanhua chemical was 9800 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day. Subsequently, the overall n-butanol market was weak and mainly operated, and the information on the supply and demand side was relatively calm. 20. On the 21st, affected by the general start-up in the downstream and the poor overall demand performance, the n-butanol plant in Shandong Province reduced the price of n-butanol by 500-800 yuan / ton. As of the 21st, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9000-9300 yuan / ton, with a decline of more than 7% in the sixth day. On the 21st, the ex factory price of Shandong Luxi Chemical n-butanol was around 9000 yuan / ton, and decreased by 800 yuan / ton in two days. The ex factory price of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol was 9000 yuan / ton, and decreased by 800 yuan / ton in one day. At present, the overall downstream demand is general, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is relatively light.

In terms of upstream propylene, recently (June 15-June 21) the domestic propylene market in Shandong Province has been running down as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on June 20, the reference price of propylene was 7958.25 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared with June 15 (7966.6 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand for n-butanol cautiously affects the mentality of the operators. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is weak, mainly for consolidation and operation. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

The price of DBP fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the business club, the DBP price fell this week, and the overall DBP market fell. As of June 20, the price of DBP was 10166.67 yuan / ton, down 2.09% from 10383.33 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. The raw material cost of DBP fell this week, and the plasticizer market fell.

The price of normal butanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the high price of n-butanol fell this week, and the market of n-butanol fell. On June 20, the price of n-butanol was 9633.33 yuan / ton, down 2.03% from 9833.33 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. This week, the transaction enthusiasm of n-butanol decreased, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell slightly, the cost of DBP decreased, the rising momentum of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure was great.

The price of phthalic anhydride stopped rising and stabilized this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the phthalic anhydride market stopped rising and stabilized this week. As of June 19, the phthalic anhydride price was 8675 yuan / ton, up 2.06% from the phthalic anhydride price of 8500 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply, but the demand for phthalic anhydride was poor, and the phthalic anhydride market stabilized after rising; DBP raw material costs tend to stabilize, and DBP cost support weakens.

Aftermarket expectation

According to the DBP data analyst of business agency, in terms of raw materials, the price of butanol fell violently this week, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising, and the overall cost of plasticizer DBP decreased slightly. In the future, the recovery of DBP demand is slow, the price of DBP raw materials fell, the cost of DBP fell, the pressure on DBP fell, and the upward momentum weakened. It is expected that the price of DBP will fall slightly in the future.