This week (11.14-18), the price of ethyl acetate in China fell significantly. According to the statistics of the business community, it fell by 0.73% this week, mainly because of the sharp decline of raw acetic acid and the price reduction of major manufacturers, especially the price decline of the main factories in Shandong, which changed from auction to retail, depressed the market confidence, and the weak downstream demand. At the weekend, the market price of ethyl acetate was 6400-6600 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of acetic acid, the domestic acetic acid fell significantly this week. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid fell by 3.07%. The utilization rate of acetic acid market capacity increased during the week. Celanese and Henan Shunda resumed operation within the week. The supply volume increased. The social inventory increased. In addition, the upstream methanol price fell and the cost was weak, which depressed the downstream market mentality. In terms of terminal demand: it is still weak at present, and the market trading atmosphere is general. In order to maintain the rhythm of shipment, the manufacturer has lowered its quotation, and the price trend of acetic acid continues to decline.

From the above figure, the price trend comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they are highly correlated, and the recent trend is basically the same. The recent downward trend of acetic acid is more severe than that of downstream ethyl acetate, which is not affected by the improvement of downstream demand. The acetic acid curve shows signs of approaching ethyl acetate, and the downward trend of acetic acid is intensified, which also relieves the cost pressure of downstream ethyl acetate manufacturers.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate this week was stable, and the operating rate was flat last week. At present, the operating rate of the industry is about 60%. Major factories in Shandong and Jiangsu maintained normal operation. This week, some manufacturers generally lowered their ex factory prices by about 100 yuan/ton. The manufacturer reduced the price and inventory, which depressed the market confidence. Moreover, the market expectation has turned weak. At present, the supply of ethyl acetate exceeds the demand.

On the demand side, downstream procurement generally slowed down. This week, dealers and downstream factories had weak purchasing intentions. Shandong’s main factories changed from auction to retail, and the deal was not ideal. Downstream orders contracted, leading to a significant slowdown in the speed of goods delivery. The number of transactions in the market is relatively small, and most transactions are at low prices. In addition to some downstream demand for goods preparation, the market as a whole maintains a rigid demand.

Looking at the future market, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business community believe that the current raw material acetic acid is still declining, and the cost is still negative, which does not rule out the possibility that the ethyl acetate will continue to fall next week. The supply and demand side is also difficult to see too much value. The low-end transactions in the market are better than the high-end transactions, so it is expected that the market of ethyl acetate will be weak in the short term.

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of November 17, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8033.33 yuan/ton, unchanged from Monday’s price and 7.31% lower than that on October 17.

This week, the acrylic acid market was stable. From the perspective of cost, the price of raw propylene has fallen recently, and the cost support has weakened. From the perspective of supply and demand: the plant load has been adjusted slightly, and the operating rate has declined compared with the previous period. However, the downstream procurement mentality is cautious. The market transaction is just in demand, and the atmosphere is general. The focus of acrylic acid market negotiation is stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose and fell back this week (11.14-11.18). The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7312 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7230 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 1.12%.

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the cost is still supported to some extent. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the market atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the acrylic market will operate with a subjective expectation of stability in the short term. More attention should be paid to the business commencement and the demand for cold transfer terminals in the north.

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 10, the price of nitrile rubber was 15250 yuan/ton, a new low in the year, 37.88% lower than the peak in the year. Since the beginning of the year, the nitrile rubber market has experienced two rounds of downturns. The first round of downward trend fell from the end of April to the end of August, with a decline of 35.79%; The second round of downward trend fell by 10.43% from late September to November 10. The traditional peak season of “golden nine and silver ten” only brought a small rebound to NBR in the short term, and the continuous downturn in demand once again dragged down NBR.

Raw material prices fell sharply, and the cost support of nitrile rubber was seriously insufficient. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of butadiene on November 10 was 6603 yuan/ton, 45.41% lower than the year high of 12096 yuan/ton; It was 28.83% lower than the September high of 9277 yuan/ton. Although the price of raw material acrylonitrile has rebounded since the end of August, it still fell sharply compared with the beginning of the year. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 10, the price of acrylonitrile was 11190 yuan/ton, down 23.15% from the high at the beginning of the year.

The supply side remained loose, dragging down the nitrile rubber market. On the one hand, the newly-built 35000 t/a butyronitrile unit of Lanzhou Petrochemical will be put into operation in May 2022, and there will be pressure on the supply side of the new butyronitrile capacity; On the other hand, during the Jin Jiu Yin Shi period, the domestic nitrile rubber plants basically operated normally, the enterprise inventory accumulated, and the pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber further increased. Lanzhou Petrochemical 100000 t/a nitrile unit operates normally; The 30000 t/a nitrile rubber plant of Nanjing Jinpu Insa Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. is in normal production; The 30000t/a nitrile rubber plant of Arantai Rubber operates normally; Normal production of Zhenjiang Nandi 50000 t/a nitrile rubber plant; Ningbo Shunze 65000 t/a unit operates normally.

Recently, the downstream rubber products industry continued to operate at a low level, the purchase of nitrile rubber was sluggish, the market turnover was light, and the demand for nitrile rubber was insufficient.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that at present, Nandi’s 50000 t/a NBR plant has been shut down for maintenance for about two weeks, slightly easing the pressure on the supply side of some NBR brands. However, the supply side of NBR is still relatively loose as a whole. In addition to weak demand, it is expected that NBR will continue to bottom out in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash this week was largely stable and slightly dynamic. The average market price of light soda ash was 2650 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 2644 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell 0.23%, down 27.31% from the same period last year. On November 10, the commodity index of light soda ash was 135.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.30% from the highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and up 114.71% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash this week is mainly stable, and the price is large, stable and small. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2650-2800 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2750 yuan/ton. Data shows that the operating rate of soda ash this week is about 89%.

Demand: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of glass fell this week. On Monday, the average market price was 19.63 yuan/square meter, and on the weekend, the average market price was 19.52 yuan/ton. The price fell 0.56%, down 23.96% year on year. The overall trading situation of the glass spot market is average. Transportation in some areas is affected to some extent. On the whole, the glass market is relatively flexible. Downstream processing plants mainly purchase on demand, and most manufacturers’ quotations are stable.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 0 kinds of rising commodities, 2 kinds of falling commodities and 3 kinds of zero rising commodities in the price list of chlor alkali industry in the 44th week of 2022 (10.31-11.4). The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 3.00%) and PVC (- 0.47%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.7%.

Analysts from the business society believe that: according to the survey data of the business society, the price of domestic soda ash is generally stable and slightly dynamic. Recently, soda ash enterprises have started to work in a relatively stable manner. The overall trading and investment atmosphere is ordinary. The downstream of soda ash is still mainly purchased on demand. The upstream and downstream supply and demand play a game, and the price of soda ash is under pressure. It is estimated that the price of soda ash will be mainly consolidated in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price trend

In the second week of November, the domestic POM market rose by a narrow margin, and the overall price performance was very high. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic POM was 13700 yuan/ton on November 6 and 13866.67 yuan/ton on November 14, with a weekly increase and decrease of+1.22%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range last week. During the week, some large plants shut down their production units and the supply decreased. However, in some regions, there is resistance in the shipment of goods, and the demand is limited, and the downstream receiving price is weak; Shandong formaldehyde market is also vulnerable to consolidation due to poor transportation. There were few real deals on the floor, and trading did not improve significantly.

Supply: Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has remained at a high level. Except Zhangjiagang Xuhuacheng, other polymerization plants are operating at full load, and the current industry load is more than 90%. The processing profit of the enterprise fluctuates in a narrow range, with a gross profit level of about 2300 yuan per ton, which is acceptable.

Demand: Although the load of POM industry was high last week, the supply of goods in the market was generally tight. The confidence of producers and traders is fair, and the willingness to support prices is generally strong. The trading position of domestic POM in East China and South China markets rose together, with an average weekly increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. However, the enthusiasm of the terminal enterprises for goods preparation is general, and the demand follow-up is slightly lagging behind.

Future market forecast

In the second week of November, the market of POM rose in a narrow range. The load of domestic polymerization plants is high, and some spot logistics are not smooth due to the impact of public health events. The market supply is slightly tight and there is an expectation of further tightening. In terms of demand, it is slightly insufficient. Downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory, and pick up goods mostly in small pieces. The fundamentals of the market are mixed, and the supply and demand pull the game. It is expected that in the short term, the POM market will rise and be blocked, and fall back to the consolidation market.

The spot market price of asphalt continued to decline this week, mainly because of the end of demand, the refinery reduced the price for shipment, and the downstream factories mainly purchased on demand. The actual delivery atmosphere was not good.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, from November 4 to 7, the average spot price of domestic asphalt manufacturers in Shandong was 4285 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 4163 yuan/ton at the weekend. During the cycle, the price fell 2.83%, the price fell 6.96% month on month, and rose 19.37% year on year.

It can be seen from the comparison chart of the price trends of crude oil and asphalt in the business community that the price trends of brent crude oil and asphalt are different before and after November 1. Before November 1, the trends of the two are roughly the same. After November 1, the trends of the two are in contrast, with crude oil rising while asphalt continuing to decline. It can be concluded that the main factor influencing the asphalt price trend in the near future is not crude oil, but other aspects, such as supply and demand.

It can be seen from the price rise and fall chart of the asphalt industry chain of the business community that the prices of the whole industry chain fell in the past month, including crude oil (- 0.17%), asphalt (- 6.96%), and activated carbon (- 1.23%); The products with increased prices include coal tar (1.85%).

The weekly K column chart of domestic asphalt production price of the business agency shows that the asphalt market has been dominated by narrow shocks in the past two months, and the decline in the past two Mondays is more obvious.

At present, asphalt supply is relatively stable; From the demand side, the road demand may be limited due to weather conditions. Business agency asphalt analysts expect that the short-term domestic asphalt market will be dominated by downturn.

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of November 11, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8033.33 yuan/ton, 2.03% lower than the price on Monday, and 7.31% lower than the price on October 11.

Acrylic acid market was stable and fell this week. From the perspective of cost, the price of raw propylene has risen recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. From the perspective of supply and demand, the operating rate of some equipment maintenance has declined slightly compared with that in the early stage, but the downstream procurement is just in demand, the market transaction atmosphere is light and stable, and the acrylic acid market negotiation focuses on stability.

The upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, on November 10, the reference price of propylene was 7330.60, up 4.18% compared with November 1 (7036.60).

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the pressure on the cost side is increasing at present, and the downstream is mainly following up on demand, with little change in the supply and demand side. It is expected that the acrylic market will be mainly reorganized and operated in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine kept stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 49800 yuan/ton, down 27.7% year on year. On November 3, the bromine commodity index was 174.74, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.73% from the highest point 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 196.57% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the bromine price was weak and consolidated, the overall market turnover was average, and the shipment was made at a small margin. Recently, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have been lack of support, and the supply and demand of bromine are relatively sufficient. However, the market establishment is still dominated by rigid demand procurement, and there is a phenomenon of taking advantage of opportunities to lower prices.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price fell this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1310 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 1250 yuan/ton. The price fell 4.58%, down 41.13% year on year. At present, the sulfur market is mainly wait-and-see. Affected by the increase in port arrivals, the downstream demand of refineries in East China is weakened, and at the same time, due to the impact of public health events, transportation is limited, enterprises have difficulty shipping, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. It is expected that the sulfur market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the analysts of the business society, the price of bromine is weak in the near future. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported in the near future. The supply and demand of both sides are playing a game. Bromine enterprises intend to stabilize the price, but there is an opportunity to depress the price in the downstream. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will consolidate and operate, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from October 31 to November 4, the domestic ethanol market was on the sidelines. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic ethanol producers remained at 6762 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it reached 6750 yuan/ton. The price fell 0.18% within the week, 0.18% month on month, and 0.37% year-on-year.

The price range of the domestic ethanol market was volatile, and the short-term price was hardly boosted, with a small downward trend as the main trend. The price of raw corn fluctuated, the starting load of downstream chemical acetate was stable, and the demand decreased. Stable load arrangement on the plant surface, and weak price operation on the ethanol market.

From the aspect of raw materials and cost, the business community monitored that the domestic corn market price was relatively strong, rising 0.20% from 2801 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2807 yuan/ton at the end of the week.

From the perspective of downstream products, the commencement of downstream ethyl acetate basically remained stable, and the price market was stable. The business community monitored that the price of ethyl acetate remained at 6950 yuan/ton at the beginning and end of the week, with steady rise and fall.

In the short term, the price of corn is mainly stable, and the supply in the later period is increased, which may be weak. The downstream ethyl acetate operates weakly and stably. The ethanol analysts of the business community predicted that the domestic ethanol market would be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has risen. As of the 6th day, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11128.57 yuan/ton, up 6.42% from the beginning of the week’s price of 10457.14 yuan/ton.

The price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has risen. Recently, the epidemic situation has been repeated in some parts of the north, some devices have been shut down, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased. The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid declined in the overhaul of some manufacturers in the south, which affected the price trend to rise. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 11100-11500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11200-11600 yuan/ton. In terms of export, the export price is higher than the domestic market price due to problems such as content and packaging. The export price is about 13000 yuan/ton.

The market price of raw material fluorite rose. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3187.5 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from 3156.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. Since the middle of October, the price has reached a high level. At present, the price is at the peak of the year. The operating rate of fluorite mines remains low. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. There is a shortage of fluorite raw materials in China. The commencement of fluorite flotation is limited, and the spot supply is insufficient. In addition, the import of fluorite is limited. The epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia is serious, the transportation of fluorite is difficult, and the supply of fluorite is very tight. The cost of hydrofluoric acid drives the market up.

The market of the downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is average, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is maintained. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is in the range of 18000-19000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much. The price of trichloroethylene is temporarily stable, and the cost support is still in place. The focus of R134a trading remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is rising due to the cost.

In the future, the fluorine chemical industry has improved, the price of raw materials fluorite has remained high, the price of sulfuric acid raw materials has risen, and the price trend of downstream refrigerant products has temporarily stabilized. In addition, the domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly strained recently, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are well supported. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst from the business community, believes that the price trend of the hydrofluoric acid market may rise slightly in the future.