1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of imported potassium chloride in the domestic market fell first and then rose this month. The price of potassium chloride fell from 3833.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3683.33 yuan/ton on November 18, a drop of 3.91%, and then rose to 3883.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a rise of 5.43%. On November 29, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 102.19, unchanged from yesterday, 29.40% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 5.67% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride dealers rose slightly this month: the arrival price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the end of the month was about 3660-3880 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price was temporarily stable, mainly based on contracts. At the end of this month, Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4000 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of this month. At the end of this month, Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of this month. At the end of the month, 62% of the white potassium in the port was about 3600-3700 yuan/ton, 60% of the red granules in the port was about 3800-3900 yuan/ton, and 62% of the Russian white potassium in the border trade was about 3500-3600 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell first and then rose this month. The price fell from 9250.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9225.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 0.27%, 13.89% higher than the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this month, from 6162.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5875.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 4.67%, up 1.29% year-on-year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of potassium chloride in the first half of December may rise slightly, mainly finishing. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger is stable, mainly based on contracts. The price of imported potassium chloride rose slightly. The downstream agricultural demand is increasing, the industrial demand is general, and the rigid demand is mainly procurement. The price of potassium chloride may rise in the future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic PC market was weak and volatile at the end of November and early December, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell in tandem. As of December 5, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of the business community was about 17,950 yuan/ton, up or down 0% weekly.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the figure above that bisphenol A continued to fall last week, and the price has gradually approached the cost line. The continuous downturn of phenol is difficult to support bisphenol A. Pure benzene negotiation fell, and the long-term holding intention was not strong, and the shipment intention was relatively large. The offer fell. After the price reduction of bisphenol A, buyers did not enter the market enough, and the market remained sluggish, dragging down the cost of PC.

In terms of supply: Last week, the utilization rate of PC capacity increased, and the total load of domestic PC enterprises was about 56%. There are many inspections at the end of the year, but the pressure on the supply side will rise in the short term. In addition, the slow flow of goods on the market hit the confidence of enterprises and merchants in price fixing.

Demand: PC terminal enterprises started at a low position last week, and just needed to maintain production when getting goods. The operators have an empty mind and keep a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The actual orders are mainly scattered.

Future market forecast

Last week, the PC market fluctuated, the upstream bisphenol A was weak and difficult to change, and the support for PC cost collapsed. The load of domestic polymerization plants rebounded and the pressure on the supply side increased. On the whole, there is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market. It is expected that the PC market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation market in the near future.

Aluminum price rose 5.13% on November

According to the data of the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on November 30 was 18983.33 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from 19273.33 yuan/ton on November 18. However, according to the monthly data, the current price is 5.13% higher than the price at the beginning of the month.

In the long term, the average price of aluminum ingot market is 17450 yuan/ton, up 8.79% from the recent recovery (July 14, 2022).

Macro positive

1. The National Bureau of Statistics released data and preliminarily calculated that the gross domestic product in the first three quarters was 87,026.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% at constant prices, 0.5 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year. On a month on month basis, GDP grew by 3.9% in the third quarter.

2. Terminal demand. According to the data of the Passenger Association, China’s retail sales of generalized passenger cars in October increased by 7.2% year on year. In October, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 556000 units, a year-on-year increase of 75.2% and a month on month decrease of 9.0%. From January to October, a trend was formed. The real estate policy has many advantages. The real estate policy has good news.

Fundamentals Overview

On the supply side, due to environmental protection, cost and other problems in the heating season in the north, the output of about 100000 tons has been reduced slightly, but Sichuan, Guangxi and other real estates can continue to repair. At present, Sichuan has recovered about 30%, and the operating capacity is 360000 tons. Therefore, the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply in November was generally stable, with a small increase. At present, the domestic electrolytic operation capacity has increased by about 270000 tons to 40.61 million tons compared with the beginning of November. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in November (30 days) is about 3.337 million tons, up 8.8% year on year.

In terms of inventory: according to the statistics of inventory in mainstream areas, it is still at the level of more than 500000 tons. On November 28, 2022, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum will be 516000 tons, 2000 tons less than that of last Thursday, 97000 tons less than that of last Thursday, 498000 tons less than that of the same period last year.

In terms of demand, the aluminum price fell at the end of the month, mainly due to soft demand. According to statistics, the operating rate of domestic leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises fell 0.8 percentage points month on month to 66.3%.

On the overseas side, the overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reduced by about 2 million tons due to the energy crisis or maintenance strike. However, within the month, LME decided not to take further measures against RUSAL, which eased supply concerns.

Future market forecast

On the one hand, the aluminum price in November was boosted by the positive release of real estate policies in the terminal market, on the other hand, the pace of interest rate increase in the United States slowed down, the US dollar index fell back to a high level, and the nonferrous metal sector recovered as a whole. The overall aluminum price is rising and recovering. At present, low inventory has a certain support for aluminum price, but the terminal is gradually entering the low consumption season. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises may gradually decline, and the inventory may increase. In the short term, supply and demand are relatively stable, and the probability of sideways trading is expected to increase.

In November, the domestic fluorite price continued to rise. As of the end of the month, the average domestic fluorite price was 3225 yuan/ton, 1.57% higher than the month beginning price of 3175 yuan/ton. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the highest point in the year.

Supply side: The production of enterprises in the north is gradually stopped due to the decline of temperature

The operating rate of the domestic supply side has declined. On the one hand, the backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and on the other hand, the mineral survey work is still full of difficulties in terms of new mines. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient commencement of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, and limited commencement of fluorite flotation. On the other hand, as the temperature drops, fluorite enterprises in the north gradually stop working, and the spot supply continues to decline. In addition, due to the severe epidemic in some areas, fluorite transportation is difficult, fluorite supply is very tight, and the supply of fluorite is difficult to obtain. The price of fluorite continues to rise.

Demand side: the price of hydrofluoric acid rises, and the refrigerant market is fair

The price trend of the downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose sharply. As of the end of the month, the price of the hydrofluoric acid market was 12242.86 yuan/ton, 10.30% higher than the price of 11100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The domestic market trend of hydrofluoric acid rose. Some enterprises reported that the supply of hydrofluoric acid was tight. The price rise of the hydrofluoric acid market formed a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of the fluorite market rose.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is between 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has declined slightly, the trichloroethylene price has risen, and the cost support is still in place. The R134a trading center has declined slightly. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of the three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain. As a result, the fluorite market price has risen.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises have entered a production suspension period. In addition to the recent shortage of raw material fluorite ore supply, hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a high mood to stock up. New energy, semiconductor and new material industries are developing rapidly, supporting the long-term demand for fluorite. Chen Ling, an analyst from the business community, believes that there is still room for the price of fluorite market to rise in December.

According to the monitoring of the business community, in November, the domestic adipic acid market went down unilaterally, mainly due to negative cost and imbalance between supply and demand. The market price range of adipic acid at the end of the month was 9600-9900 yuan/ton. Adipic acid dropped 7.40% in the whole month.

Adipic acid industry chain

Adipic acid industry chain fell across the board this month. The upstream raw materials of adipic acid declined significantly, especially the drop of pure benzene and cyclohexane was heavy, both exceeding 10%. The downstream PA66 also dropped significantly, nearly 8%. The terminal demand was sluggish, which reduced the shipment speed of adipic acid. The whole industrial chain resonates downward.

Cost side

On the cost side, it can be seen from the figure above that adipic acid has basically the same trend as the upstream pure benzene. Pure benzene has gone out of the first up and then down market. Petrochemical manufacturers have repeatedly lowered the guidance price this month, with a cumulative decline of nearly 1000 yuan. On the one hand, the pressure on the supply side is heavy, and the port inventory is high; On the other hand, the downstream demand slows down, and the substitution of low price of hydrogenated benzene for goods has a negative impact on the market. According to the monitoring of the business community, pure benzene dropped by 11.9% from October 11 to the end of the month.

Supply side

From the perspective of market supply, at the beginning of the month, the supplier settlement price was introduced, and generally low price settlement was adopted; In addition, the listing of Shandong Dachang was lowered for three times at the beginning, middle and end of the month, with a cumulative range of 2000 yuan. The supplier’s low price shipment brought heavy pressure on the market. From the perspective of the operating rate, the operating rate of this month remained around 60%, slightly higher than that of last month.

Demand side

The downstream demand of adipic acid is strong, and the rigid demand is the main demand. Take the downstream PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, the downstream PA66 declined significantly in November, at 7.92%. The spot supply was stable and abundant, causing the social inventory to rise. Especially the bad news on the demand side. When the traditional peak season ends, the enthusiasm of downstream goods preparation is further reduced, and the resistance to high price goods is strong. As the shipping speed of merchants slows down, the price drops again and again. As of the end of the month, the market price of PA66 was 24000 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, on the cost side, crude oil continues to be weak, and pure benzene continues to decline, which makes it difficult to benefit the cost side in the short term. At the end of the supply side maintenance month, some devices have joined the maintenance team, and the market continues to go out of stock, so the supply pressure may be relieved in the future. However, the demand side will not change the downturn in the short term, and the supply and demand game will continue. On the basis of comprehensive consideration, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the settlement price at the end of the month.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 25, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18500.00 yuan/ton, 0.89% lower than the price of 18666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 25.00% lower than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 25, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25,333.33 yuan/ton, 1.94% lower than the price of 25,833.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 47.59% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The price of refrigerant R22 fluctuated slightly this week. The price of raw material trichloromethane fell sharply in November, falling by 32.33% in the month. Hydrofluoric acid continued to rise overall in November, rising by 8.75% in the month. The cost of raw material fluctuated at a low level. The demand for refrigerant in winter was generally light, the cost fluctuated slightly, and the price of refrigerant R22 moved forward with a small fluctuation.

As of November 25, the price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, with a slight increase of 8.75% in the month. The price of trichloroethylene continued to be weak, with a decline of about 5% in the month. The cost price of raw materials was generally weak and stable. The price of refrigerant R134a was stable this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid rose significantly in November, and the recovery of raw material cost will support the domestic price of refrigerant R134a in the future.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believed that the price of chloroform fell sharply, the price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded from the bottom, the overall bottom of R22 cost price fluctuated, the cost weakness became stable, and the R22 market price would become stable in the future. The price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded sharply, the price of trichloroethylene dropped slightly, and the cost of R134a raw materials showed a slight recovery trend. Affected by the light overall demand for refrigerants in winter, the price of R134a refrigerant rose and fell in a dilemma. It is expected that the R134a market price will continue to fluctuate slightly at the current level in the short term.

Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market Price Trend

Polyformaldehyde price curve

(Photo source: Commodity Analysis System of Business Cooperatives)

In November, the price of polyoxymethylene in Shandong was stable. The average price of polyoxymethylene production in Shandong was 5433.33 yuan/ton, and the quotation was flat compared with last month. A year-on-year drop of 20.10%.

Chart of market price trend of methanol polyoxymethylene

Upstream methanol situation: domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly, mainly due to supply and demand. In terms of equipment, Yankuang Guojiao 250000 t/a equipment is shut down for maintenance. The 1.2 million t/a unit of Shanxi Jinmei Huayu is restored, and the 100000 t/a units of Shanxi Jinfeng, 100000 t/a units of Shanxi Tianze and 400000 t/a units of Shanxi Coking are planned to restart. The supply is abundant, but the existing demand has not been significantly boosted, and the short-term domestic methanol market is mainly weak.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and consolidated, with weak growth and general cost support. In addition, the transportation in Shandong is not smooth, and the market turnover is light. Polyformaldehyde analysts from the business community predict that the price may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell after rising this week (11.14-11.18). The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7312 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7230 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 1.12%, down 2.77% from 30 days ago.

As of November 18, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/November 18

Shandong region./7200-7250 yuan/ton

Northeast China../6850-6900 yuan/ton

East China/7100-7150 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of this Friday, the mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market was 7200-7250 yuan/ton. Due to the large increase last week, the downstream was wait-and-see and the demand was suppressed. In order to stabilize the delivery of goods, the refinery lowered the price and gave up the increase. The overall supply and demand of propylene market is stable, with downstream demand as the main demand. However, this year, there are many new capacity, relatively loose supply, and great resistance to price rise. Affected by the sharp drop of crude oil on Friday, the market mentality was depressed, and the downstream receiving was slightly cautious.

Upstream: crude oil prices fell broadly this week. As of the end of November 17, WTI fell 3.95 to 81.64 US dollars/barrel in December, down 4.61%; In January, Brent fell 3.08 to 89.78 dollars/barrel, down 3.31%. Negative cost support. Downstream market was mixed, and the demand for some products was good, but polypropylene was still weak, holding back the propylene market.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative, the current long short game in the propylene market is affected by the sharp drop in crude oil. Under the leadership of bad news, propylene prices are expected to continue to decline in a narrow range next week.

This week (11.11-11.18), methylene chloride market was weak and fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2575 yuan/ton, down 5.5% from 2725 yuan/ton last Friday. As of the 18th, the market price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was between 2500 yuan and 2600 yuan/ton.

This week (11.11-11.18), the commencement of methane chloride increased slightly, and the pressure of dichloromethane supply surface remained.

This week (11.11-11.18), the spot market of methanol rose slightly, and the cost of dichloromethane rose slightly. According to the business community, as of November 18, the spot price of methanol was 2830 yuan/ton, up 1.89% from 2777 yuan/ton last Friday.

When winter comes, the domestic household air conditioning industry is in the low season of production and marketing. The demand for mainstream refrigerants R32, R22 and R410A is weak, and the refrigerant starts at a low level; The thin material and pharmaceutical industries started relatively stably, and the transactions in the dichloromethane market were generally flat.

Future forecast: The analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose, the cost is slightly weak, and the rising raw material price and cost are slightly supported. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of steam coal was weak this week. On November 20, the energy index was 1139, unchanged from yesterday, down 27.03% from the highest point of 1561 (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 122.90% from the lowest point of 511 on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the price of steam coal is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The operation is affected by public health events and safety production reduction, and the price of steam coal is weak. The price of coal mine has been lowered by 20-40 yuan/ton. The overall supply guarantee and long-term cooperation of coal in the market are better, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood.

In terms of downstream ports, traders’ quotations declined, mainly taking a wait-and-see attitude. Downstream customers are generally motivated to pick up goods, with few deals, and generally accept high prices. The quotation of traders dropped slightly, and the buyer and seller were deadlocked.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, last week (November 7-13), the national coal price fell steadily, including 1586 yuan per ton of No. 2 smokeless lump coal, unchanged from the previous week, 1481 yuan per ton of coking coal and 970 yuan per ton of steam coal, down 1.2% and 0.3% respectively. The price of steel products rose slightly, including 4053 yuan per ton of deformed steel bars, unchanged from the previous week, 4276 yuan per ton of high-speed wire rods and 4143 yuan per ton of hot rolled strip steel, up 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.

According to the analysts of the business community, the market transaction of steam coal in the origin area is relatively ordinary due to the impact of safety inspection and public health events. In terms of downstream ports, the downstream still mainly wait and see steam coal, generally accept high prices, and the coal price declines. The overall purchasing enthusiasm of the market is average, and it is expected that the price of steam coal will be dominated by weak operation (but policy regulation still needs to be paid attention to), depending on the downstream market demand.