This week (5.12-5.19), the market for dichloromethane was weak and declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 19th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.67% from last Monday’s 2512 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has once again fallen, and the cost of dichloromethane has slightly decreased; Downstream refrigerant demand is weak, with weak support for dichloromethane. The supply side of methane chloride is still loose, and the supply side is weak. The price of dichloromethane has dropped.

This week (5.12-5.19), there was no significant fluctuation in the start of the methane chloride plant, and the overall supply pressure remained.

This week (5.12-5.19), the price of raw material methanol decreased, and the cost of dichloromethane slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 19th, the spot price of methanol was 2282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% from last Monday’s 2327 yuan/ton.

The demand for downstream refrigerant R32 is weak, resulting in a low starting point and a weaker demand for dichloromethane. The pharmaceutical intermediate and diluent solvent industries have experienced slight fluctuations in production, and dichloromethane just needs support. There was no significant increase in the overall demand for dichloromethane.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data of Business Society, downstream demand for dichloromethane is currently slightly weaker than in the early stage. In addition, the supply of dichloromethane is loose, and due to the weak fundamentals of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

This week (5.15-5.22), the market for chloroform slightly rose. According to data from Business Society, as of May 22, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2125 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.41% from last Monday’s 2075 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has decreased, while the cost of trichloromethane has slightly decreased; The peak season for downstream refrigerants has come to an end, with weak demand for R22 and weak support for chloroform; The device is operating at a low level, and the pressure on the trichloromethane supply surface in the area is relatively low; Trichloromethane market slightly rose.

This week (5.15-5.22), the methane chloride plant started operating with slight fluctuations, while the Luxi plant was operating at a low level.

This week (5.15-5.22), the price of raw material methanol decreased, and the cost of chloroform slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 22, the spot price of methanol was 2190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.21% from last Monday’s 2335 yuan/ton.

After entering May, the refrigeration market entered the end of the traditional peak season. The parking and maintenance prices of some downstream refrigerant R22 enterprises are temporarily stable, and in addition, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. The support for trichloromethane will continue to be weak in the past peak season.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, although the supply side pressure in the trichloromethane region is currently relatively low, the demand side support is weak, coupled with a downward trend in cost, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be mainly weak in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of toluene has rebounded after falling this week. On May 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7160.00 yuan/ton, while on May 19th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%.

In terms of crude oil, the US crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased. The EIA monthly report predicts that US crude oil production will increase by about 5% in 2023, and fuel demand will increase by 1%. It is expected that US crude oil production will increase by 5.1% to 12.53 million barrels per day in 2023, and the oil production of major shale oil producing areas in the US will rise to historical highs in June; The United States intends to purchase 3 million barrels of sour crude oil to supplement its strategic oil reserves that are about to run out.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports continued to decline in May due to the implementation of production reduction commitments; Canada’s wildfire has caused production disruptions and the OPEC+production reduction plan has begun to be implemented. It is expected that oil supply will significantly decline in May, and the prospect of supply tightening will boost the oil market; The US debt ceiling negotiation released an optimistic signal, and investors were less worried.

The possibility of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates in June has increased, and the US dollar has risen to its highest in two months. International crude oil closed lower on Thursday.

On May 19th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil for the trading company was 72.83 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.14% compared to the beginning of this month (76.78 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 76.96 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -4.20% compared to the beginning of this month (80.33 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream: In terms of TDI, domestic TDI prices have been falling all the way this week. Downstream demand support for TDI is weak, with strong resistance to high prices and poor enthusiasm for entering the market; The factory’s spot filling is slow, with a focus on supporting the market. Traders have a poor mentality, and the trading atmosphere on the market is cold. The trading market is pessimistic, with a lower trading center and a game between supply and demand in the market. The short-term TDI market is weak. On May 15th, the TDI benchmark price was 20166.67 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, the price was 18500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.26%.

In terms of downstream px, the price of px has remained stable this week. The PX price was 8300 yuan/ton on May 15th and 8300 yuan/ton on May 19th, with no changes during the week. The supply and demand expectations for PX are weak, and the positive effects of PX are gradually weakening. Prices are under pressure, and the supply of goods on the market is normal, with good sales.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline rose and then fell this week. On May 15th, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8356.4 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, the price was 8398.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5%. The wholesale price of domestic gasoline is under pressure, and the market purchase and sales are light; The market news is gradually improving, but overall it still points towards being short, and downstream users have a cautious attitude towards stocking, which is difficult to change.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The support for OPEC+production reduction plan remains, and issues such as the debt ceiling crisis urgently need to be addressed. Demand expectations are improving, and there is still potential upward momentum for oil prices. There is uncertainty in the positive factors for toluene fundamentals, while downstream performance is weak and actual negotiations are average. Affected by the macro environment, it is expected that the price of toluene will show a slow upward trend next week.

Acetic anhydride prices rebounded and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 12th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5480 yuan/ton, rebounding from May 7th at 5437.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78%. The price of raw material acetic acid rebounded and increased, increasing the upward momentum. This week, the price of acetic anhydride rebounded and increased.

Acetic acid prices have stopped falling and rebounded

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of May 12th, the price of acetic acid was 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.06% compared to the volatile price of 3233.33 yuan/ton on May 1st; Compared to May 7th, the price of acetic acid increased by 1.54% to 3250 yuan/ton. Acetic acid enterprises have low inventory and insufficient supply. After the holiday, the market for acetic acid has rebounded, and the price of acetic acid has increased, increasing the momentum for the rise of acetic anhydride in the future.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that acetic acid companies have low inventory and insufficient supply of acetic acid. After the holiday, the acetic acid market has rebounded, and the price of acetic acid has fluctuated and risen, leading to an increase in the cost of acetic anhydride. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased and the supply is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will stabilize due to fluctuations in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has remained stable and fluctuated slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 898 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45%, and a decrease of 31.23% compared to the same period last year. On May 14th, the caustic soda commodity index was 128.63, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 51.55% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 97.56% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of domestic caustic soda has stabilized and operated this week. The current average market price in Shandong region is around 810-950 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for 32% liquid alkali in Hebei region is around 850-950 yuan/ton. This week, the overall price of caustic soda is weak, and there are currently no favorable factors in terms of supply. The performance of downstream alumina is relatively weak, and the enthusiasm for picking up goods in terms of demand is average. Purchasing is mainly based on demand, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The overall price of caustic soda is weak.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 19th week of 2023 (5.8-5.12), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 5 commodities that fell, and 1 commodity that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities on the rise are: calcium carbide (2.19%); The main commodities falling include hydrochloric acid (-10.26%), light soda ash (-1.92%), and PVC (-1.08%). This week’s average rise and fall was -1.68%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and there is currently no positive impact on the supply side. The downstream alumina aspect has been relatively light recently, with more demand for on-demand procurement, and a wait-and-see mentality has strengthened. Overall, it is expected that the market will operate in a weak or later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the decline in the domestic propane market increased, with a significant decline in the Shandong market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong on May 8th was 4933 yuan/ton, and on May 21st it was 4680 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 5.12%, a decrease of 27.77% compared to the same period last year.

As of May 12th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ May 12th

East China region/ 4700-5200 yuan/ton

North China region/ 4650-4850 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 4550-4600 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 4800-5200 yuan/ton

This week (5.8-5.12), the atmosphere of the propane market further declined, with factories selling out and downstream demand not significantly improving. During the week, crude oil fell multiple times, suppressing market sentiment, while low port supply further impacted the high price propane market. Downstream demand is lower than expected, the market trading atmosphere is difficult to improve, on-site inventory is high, and factories are reducing prices and discharging inventory.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in May, and the contract price of propane remained unchanged compared to the previous month. Butane slightly increased, with propane at $555 per ton, which remained stable compared to the previous month; Butane is $555 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, in the off-season of demand, there is an expectation of an increase in port supply, highlighting the pressure on the supply side. It is expected that the propane market will be weak and downward in the short term.

The domestic phenol market is operating weakly, with Sinopec’s North China phenol quotation lowered by 100 yuan/ton and executed at 7500 yuan/ton, while Sinopec’s East China phenol quotation remained stable at 7500 yuan/ton. According to the market analysis system of Business Society, the negotiated price of phenol in East China has dropped from 7400 yuan/ton.

Market Trends of Phenol in Major Regions of China

The downward trend in the phenol market is mainly due to the lack of discussion atmosphere in the market. After stocking up for a period before the holiday, there was a lack of interest in the terminal market after the holiday, resulting in increased pressure on traders to hold goods and sell at a lower price. As a result, the market center of gravity fell and factories took advantage of the trend and lowered.

The quotation of phenol in various markets across the country on May 10th is as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 7400./ -100

Shandong region/ 7400./ -100

Surrounding areas of Yanshan/. 7400./-100

South China region/ 8000/. -50

Upstream pure benzene has been discussed to increase slightly at 7050 yuan/ton, but cost support is limited. After the downstream bisphenol A holiday, the atmosphere was light, and the market experienced a narrow decline. The negotiations were between 9750 and 9850 yuan/ton, but it was difficult for phenol to have any positive effects in the short term. The market was weak and adjusted, and it is expected that the phenol market negotiation price will be between 7350 and 7450 yuan/ton today.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. This week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1186.67 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week. The current price has decreased by 13.17% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde market in Shandong has fluctuated and consolidated. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent formaldehyde market mainly fluctuates slightly, and the market is stable this week. As of May 5, the mainstream market value price in Shandong was 1150-1280 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fell weakly, and the market trading sentiment was average. Formaldehyde manufacturers stabilized their shipments, and the market was relatively stable.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is fluctuating and declining, with the raw material coal market mainly on a wait-and-see basis. The cost side lacks positive support, and the spot buying performance is weak, leading to a decline in the methanol market. The methanol market in the southwest region has declined, with some mainstream enterprises in Sichuan and Chongqing discussing exports at around 2300-2400 yuan/ton; The focus of some trade negotiations in Chengdu is around 2460-2520 yuan/ton. The methanol market in the Lianghu region has declined, with some enterprises in Hubei Province negotiating around 2555 to 2570 yuan/ton for mainstream reference; Some traders in Hunan offer around 2660-2700 yuan/ton for reference.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and declining, with poor cost support. Downstream sheet factories have had poor resumption of work due to rainy weather. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that formaldehyde prices in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and fall in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of Business Society, the overall price of bromine was weak in April. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 26000 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average market price of bromine was 25700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 53.61%. On April 27th, the bromine commodity index was 90.18, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.22% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 53.05% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

2、 Market analysis

The overall price of bromine is weak this month. This month, the price of bromine is weak, and there has been no significant increase in downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries. Demand is clearly bleak, and bromine companies are experiencing poor shipments. The production of bromine is sufficient, and the operators are pessimistic. Bromine manufacturers are interested in stabilizing prices, and their offers are mostly stable. And there are imported bromine supplements, bromine prices are not hot and weak, mainly consolidating the market.

Regarding sulfur: The price of sulfur decreased in April. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1066.67 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average market price was 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 79.93%. On site inquiries are average, enterprises are actively shipping, market transaction prices are low, downstream operations are weak, and follow-up to market purchases is average. Sulfur enterprises have poor shipments, and operators have a pessimistic mentality. The sulfur market has been sorted and operated.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent price trend of bromine has been weak this month, with general support from downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries, and a decline in upstream sulfur prices. Bromine companies’ shipments are relatively average. Bromine enterprises have sufficient inventory and are interested in stabilizing prices. The supply and demand game has led to a wait-and-see sentiment in the industry. Overall, it is expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak and the operating market will be consolidated, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly in April. The price of hydrochloric acid increased from 198.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 207.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 9 yuan/ton or 4.55%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 33.23% year-on-year.

On April 26th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 53.58, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.14% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 198.00% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has seen both ups and downs this month, with manufacturers having low inventory.

Cost side: Liquid chlorine price drops

From a cost perspective, the liquid chlorine market slightly declined in April. The price of liquid chlorine has dropped from 350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 100 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support.

Demand side: Downstream demand is weak

In April, the market price of ammonium chloride fell sharply, from 1165.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 905.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 22.32%, and the price at the end of the month fell 37.37% year on year. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly. The market price fell from 1871.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1800.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 3.81%, and the price at the end of the month fell by 22.04% year on year. The downstream market situation has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weak enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early May, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets have significantly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience slight fluctuations and declines.