1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of toluene has been rising all the way this week. On July 3rd, the benchmark price of toluene was 7060.00 yuan/ton, while on July 7th, the benchmark price was 7210.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.12%.

2、 Analysis and Review

China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America; Saudi Arabia has stated that it will extend its voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day for another month, while Russia has also stated that it will reduce production by 500000 barrels per day in August, bringing the total promised production reduction by OPEC+to 5.16 million barrels per day; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America.

There is still a possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July, and market risks remain; Entering the summer season, the demand for tourism has increased, and the demand for gasoline is strong. The production enthusiasm of the main refinery has increased; The PMI in the United States decreased in June, and investors’ concerns about economic slowdown and energy demand have increased; Under weak supply and demand expectations, PX rebounded weakly, and short-term PX fluctuated with crude oil and downstream PTA.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, domestic TDI prices have shown an upward trend this week. According to TDI supplier information guidance, as factory prices gradually fall, the mindset of operators has changed, and the intention to sell low has weakened. There is an upward expectation for prices, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market. It is expected that TDI will be sorted out in the future. On July 3rd, the TDI benchmark price was 17300.00 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, the price was 18100 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.62%.

In terms of downstream px, the price of px has remained stable this week. The benchmark price for PX on July 3rd was 8250 yuan/ton, and on July 7th it was 8250 yuan/ton, with no changes during the week. PX has good profits, the overall load will increase, and the supply side is showing a trend of oversupply. Terminal polyester has entered the off-season, and demand is difficult to improve. PX’s supply and demand expectations are weak, and the rebound is weak. Merchants are worried about the increase in supply, suppressing market strength, and PX will consolidate and operate in the short term.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline has seen a significant increase this week, but has fallen back over the weekend. On July 3rd, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8478.60 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, the price was 8730.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.97%. As the temperature gradually rises, the demand for gasoline in cars increases, and people travel more during the summer vacation. The tourism industry is booming, and gasoline demand is improving, with gasoline prices running higher.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The main positive factors for toluene this week are the production reduction plans of oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as the peak fuel consumption season in the United States in July and August, where gasoline demand support is still ongoing; The levying of consumption tax on some related products provides an opportunity for market speculation, and the toluene market takes advantage of this opportunity to rise; The bearish resistance in the international crude oil market has not been eliminated, but the fundamentals have strengthened, and it is expected that toluene prices may rise first and then decline. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and gasoline, the dynamics of toluene units, and the impact of downstream demand on prices.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices were relatively strong at the end of the month. On July 7th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 9166 yuan/ton.

Cost: In terms of raw materials, the market price of Coal tar fell and rose this week. So far, the market price of Coal tar is 4127 yuan/ton. After the introduction of the consumption tax policy, there are few new products in the market, and the overall operation of coke enterprises is poor. It is expected that the Coal tar market will be consolidated and operated in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, the overall inventory level of the carbon black industry is not high, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced. Carbon black enterprises have strong quotations, and the carbon black market price has slightly increased.

In terms of demand: The overall operating situation of downstream rubber conveyor belt enterprises is poor, and the demand for carbon black in the market is further reduced. The downstream tire industry is still in the traditional sales off-season, and enterprise procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, with terminal demand continuing to be weak. At present, purchasing is mainly based on hard demand, and there is currently no obvious positive news in the market. From the demand side, the overall demand in the future is not very optimistic.

Overall, the cost side support has increased, inventory levels are not high, and there has been no significant improvement in the demand side. This week, the carbon black market has remained stagnant at a high level, and it is expected that the carbon black market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has slightly decreased this week. As of the 7th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9585.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74% compared to the 1st price of 9657.14 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.41%.

Supply side: Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined, with the mainstream price negotiated by various regions in China ranging from 9300 to 9700 yuan/ton. Poor demand has led to severe losses for hydrofluoric acid enterprises. Recently, some units have been shut down and waiting for market, resulting in a decrease in spot supply of hydrofluoric acid and a weak order situation for manufacturers. As a result, the hydrofluoric acid market has slightly declined, with raw material fluorite prices slightly declining, and downstream refrigerant demand not good, Less than 60% of the production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has started, and some enterprises have increased their inventory, which has affected the downward trend of the hydrofluoric acid market.

Raw material side: Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has slightly declined. As of the 7th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3062.5 yuan/ton, which is 1.76% lower than the 1st price of 3117.5 yuan/ton. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises remains high, and upstream mining is still tense. Backward mines will continue to be phased out, and new mines will still face difficulties in mineral investigation. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and fluorite mines are not operating properly, resulting in environmental protection The requirements of emergency management departments and others are becoming stricter, and the difficulty of starting mining has increased. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market price still has support, with high prices for raw materials and heavy pressure on hydrofluoric acid enterprises.

On the demand side: The market for downstream refrigerant products at the terminal has declined, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has remained low. Due to quota elimination in the R22 market, large-scale units have replaced R507 products, resulting in a slow increase in product sales. The fluoropolymer market continues to be sluggish, refrigerant R22 manufacturers have low load, domestic market performance is weak, inventory digestion is the main focus, and procurement demand has not yet followed up. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is declining. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for consumer orders has not yet warmed up. Market confidence is insufficient. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 23000-25000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. The demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, In addition, the export market has declined, resulting in weak domestic and foreign demand. The refrigerant market has slightly declined, with scarce procurement of upstream raw materials, and the hydrofluoric acid market has been dragged down by demand.

Future Market Forecast: The upstream raw material fluorite market has slightly declined, but fluorite companies have a strong intention to increase prices. The downstream refrigerant industry remains sluggish in production, with weak procurement of hydrofluoric acid, high inventory of hydrofluoric acid, and resonance between high raw materials and poor demand. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the hydrofluoric acid market is unlikely to improve in the short term and the market remains sluggish.

Aluminium fluoride prices dropped in June

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 29, the quotation of Aluminium fluoride in China was 9900 yuan/ton, down 5.04% from the price of Aluminium fluoride on June 1, 10425 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials fell in shock, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell. In June, the price of Aluminium fluoride fell in shock.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 29th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the price of 9685.71 yuan/ton on June 1st at the beginning of the month. In June, the price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell. In June, Aluminium fluoride fell under great pressure.

The price of raw material fluorite fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 29th, the price of fluorite was 3117.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% compared to June 1st, which was 3143.75 yuan/ton. In June, the price of fluorite fluctuated and fell, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell. In June, Aluminium fluoride fell under great pressure.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at Business Society believe that in June, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in the cost of raw materials for aluminum fluoride and increased downward pressure on aluminum fluoride. In the future, the demand for cost reduction is still weak, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride is increasing. It is expected that the price of Aluminium fluoride will fall in the future.

This week (6.26-30), domestic Adipic acid continued to decline. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 30, the weekly decline of Adipic acid was 0.66%. The market trading center has shifted down by about 100 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of Adipic acid market is 8900-9200 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, the lack of support for raw materials and the weak supply-demand pattern will remain unchanged.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that this week, the Adipic acid industry chain as a whole was cold, the shock range of upstream products was weakened, and the raw materials fell across the whole line. The downstream main product PA66 remained stable, and the price did not improve.

Cost side: The overall cost of raw materials is relatively empty

This week’s crude oil range fluctuated, lacking strong guidance. The domestic pure benzene price continued to decline, but the decline narrowed compared to last week, with a decline of 0.05% this week (a decrease of 0.21% last week). The main refinery’s quotation has not changed much, and the supply side is relatively abundant, with a backlog of goods, and the market is still in the process of destocking. The price of Cyclohexanone continued its previous weakness. This week, it failed to continue the rising trend of last week, falling slightly by 0.42%. In terms of cost, the upstream raw material market is dominated by weak operation, and the lack of cost support gives Adipic acid manufacturers the power to further reduce prices.

Supply side: There is little change in enterprise equipment

From the perspective of market supply: in terms of devices, the overall change of Adipic acid this week was not significant, maintaining about 65%. The prices of major manufacturers continued to decline this week, and the quotations of Shandong manufacturers were reduced to 100 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s previous market support effect was not ideal, and shipments were hindered, resulting in concentrated price reductions for later shipments, but it was affected by weak demand. The manufacturer’s shipping speed has slowed down. At present, there is a lack of positive guidance on the supply side.

On the demand side: it is difficult to form a strong boost on the demand side

The downstream of Adipic acid is relatively depressed. The terminal procurement just needs support, and there are relatively few orders. Taking PA66 as an example, the price hovered at a low level this week, making it difficult to break free from the weak fluctuation range. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, PA66 fell by 0% this week. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang is between 19500 to 19800 yuan/ton. In addition, the turnover of Caprolactam in other downstream areas was weak, and the price was low. TPU entered the off-season of the industry, and the orders were reduced. The demand was difficult to improve, so the turnover of Adipic acid was reduced.

Future prospects

With regard to the future market, Adipic acid analysts from the business community believed that, on the cost side, crude oil was affected by the hawkish expectation that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike had not ended, and fuel demand was suppressed. There is a lack of positive guidance on the cost side. Pure benzene and Cyclohexanone are also in a stalemate, and prices are expected to fall. The supply and demand sides may continue to maintain a weak balance, with low production and low demand continuing to play a game. In general, Adipic acid is expected to be dominated by weak operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic NMP market steadily declined in June. At the beginning of the month, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 1800 yuan/ton. On June 29th, the average price was 17333 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 3.7%.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of June 29th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ June 29th

East China/ 15500-16000 yuan/ton

Central China/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

The NMP market steadily declined in June, and the overall performance was average. Starting from the beginning of the month, downstream demand has rebounded relatively slowly, and the overall market performance is average. The slight rebound in upstream raw materials has limited impact on the NMP market. NMP manufacturers are following the market trend, but due to the low price, the market is stagnant and running smoothly. Throughout the month, the guidance of positive news is unclear, leading to a weak mentality among businesses. Under the leadership of buyers, the NMP market is prone to decline but difficult to rise.

In June, the price of raw material BDO changed from a decline to an increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market in June first fell and then rose, with a consolidation of fluctuations. From June 1st to 26th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11300 yuan/ton to 11422 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.09% during the cycle.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the current downstream construction of NMP is relatively low, and under demand constraints, it is expected that in the short term, NMP prices will be adjusted and operated at a low level in the future.

In June, the market of chloroform fell sharply. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 28, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 2025 yuan/ton, down 10.99% from 2275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw methanol fluctuated and fell, and the cost support of chloroform weakened; The downstream refrigerant R22 enters the off-season, and the demand is insufficient for chloroform support; Methane chloride is low before commencement and high after commencement, and the supply of trichloromethane is generally loose; The overall operation of the industrial chain is weak.

In June, the methane chloride unit declined in the early stage of construction, and in the late month, with the restart and load increase of Fuqiang and Huatai, the methane chloride increased slightly in the late stage of construction, and the overall supply of trichloromethane was still under pressure.

In June, the price of raw material methanol was weak and volatile, and the cost support of chloroform was weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 28th, the spot price of methanol was 2097 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.97% from 2161 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The low point of the cycle is 2015 yuan/ton, and the high point is 2190 yuan/ton.

The price of R22 was stable in June. With the end of the peak season, the overall support for chloroform was weaker than in the previous period. Overall, the total production quota for R22 in 2023 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons.

According to the methane chloride data analysts of the business society, the demand for chloroform at the end of the peak season is generally weak, coupled with the pressure on the supply side, and it is expected that the market for chloroform will be weak and consolidated in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of bromine has temporarily stabilized this week. The average market price of bromine from June 20th to June 27th was 18000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 69.18%. On June 26th, the bromine commodity index was 63.16, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 74.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 7.20% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices have been running smoothly this week. The mainstream market price in Shandong region is around 17500-18500 yuan/ton, and there is currently no significant fluctuation in the market. The overall trading atmosphere in the bromine market is light, and supply has increased. The downstream support is average, and the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand in the near future. The attitude of the bromine industry is average. The intention to stabilize the price of bromine is relatively obvious, and the shipment is average, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur market is operating weakly, with an average market price of 796.67 yuan/ton on June 20th and 746.67 yuan/ton on June 27th. The price has decreased by 6.28%, a year-on-year decrease of 79.98%. Manufacturers have sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for purchasing in the market is not good. A small amount of trading follows up on demand, resulting in a weak market negotiation atmosphere and a weak sulfur market.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will continue to operate steadily in the near future, while the upstream sulfur price will decline. The demand for downstream flame retardants and intermediates in the bromine industry will continue to be average in the near future. Bromine companies have a clear intention to support prices in the near future, and the overall attitude of the industry is pessimistic. Overall, it is expected that the short-term bromine price will consolidate the operating market, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of June 26, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 7316 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7166 yuan/ton), the price increased by 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.09%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that from June to present (6.1 to 6.26), the overall market for n-butanol in the Shandong region of China has shown a downward trend followed by an upward trend. In early June, the n-butanol market was operating in a weak state, with loose downstream demand for n-butanol and insufficient support from the demand side for n-butanol. The supply and demand transmission of n-butanol was hindered, and the supply-demand contradiction intensified. The n-butanol market continued to decline, with a 10 day decrease of around 500 to 600 yuan/ton. As of June 11th, the market price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was around 6500-6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.67% compared to the beginning of the month.

In late June, the n-butanol market ushered in a stop falling and rising operation. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream of n-butanol ushered in a phased replenishment. The downstream demand improved, the supply and demand of n-butanol in the market were smooth, the n-butanol market started to warm up, and the overall focus of the market continued to move up. As of June 26, the price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region was around 7250-7350 yuan/ton, with a 10.58% increase in the late stage.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, after the Dragon Boat Festival, the rising trend of the n-butanol market has slowed down, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is general, and the downstream mainly digests raw materials. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province is mostly stable and consolidated, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the vitamin market has remained stable and slightly volatile this week, with some products experiencing active inquiries and entering the summer. Some products have entered the maintenance concentration period, while most products are operating at the bottom and lack upward momentum.

According to price monitoring by Business Society, the vitamin C market has been running smoothly this week, with mainstream feed grade vitamin C prices ranging from 21 to 22 yuan/kg. The overall trading volume in the vitamin C market is light, with a high proportion of small orders being traded. Downstream markets just need to enter the market, with weak demand. The overall market situation is mostly in line with the market, and there is currently no significant positive support, indicating a weak performance.

This week, the price of vitamin A is temporarily stable, with the mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A in the market being 88-90 yuan/kg, and the quotation in the European market being 20-24 euros/kg. The vitamin A market has stable trading volume, with an oversupply of domestic vitamin A and weak demand, making it difficult to improve.

The price of vitamin E has not fluctuated much this week, and the current mainstream quotation in the VE market is between 72-78 yuan/ton. The European market offers a price of 7.4 to 7.7 euros per kilogram. The weather has turned hot, with an increase in planned maintenance companies and expectations of reduced supply, vitamin E prices have shown strong performance.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamins are currently in the bottom consolidation stage, with small and mostly single traded transactions on the market, lacking upward momentum. They will closely monitor the production, sales, and market trends of enterprises in the future.