This week (7.28-8.4), the market of Polybutadiene continued to rise slightly. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, as of August 4, the price of Polybutadiene in East China was 11120 yuan/ton, up 2.68% from 10830 yuan/ton last Friday. The price of raw butadiene continued to rise slightly, and the cost support of Polybutadiene continued to strengthen; This week, the supply price of Polybutadiene was raised by 200 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants kept up. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of August 4, the ex factory price of Polybutadiene of Sinopec North China Sales Company was 11100 yuan/ton.

This week (7.28-8.4), the domestic Polybutadiene plant started steadily, Daqing Petrochemical Polybutadiene restarted at the end of July, and Zhejiang Petrochemical cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant plans to restart in the near future. The supply pressure of Polybutadiene increased slightly compared with the previous period.

The price of raw butadiene continued to rebound this week (7.28-8.4), and the cost focus of Polybutadiene continued to rebound. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 4th, the price of butadiene was 7376 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.43% from last Friday’s 7201 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market fluctuated slightly this week (7.28-8.4). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 4th, the price of natural rubber was 11944 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% from last Friday’s 11960 yuan/ton, and the highest point in the cycle was 12080 yuan/ton.

Recently, the tire operating rate has fluctuated slightly, with half steel tire operating slightly lower than the previous period, and all steel tire operating slightly fluctuating compared to the previous period. The demand for rubber rigid support is stable. It is understood that as of early August 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 5.8% for all steel tires and around 7.2% for half steel tires.

Future market forecast: analysts from the business community believe that the high raw material price of Polybutadiene is supported by its cost. Polybutadiene started steadily this week, but there are plans to restart devices later, and the supply of Polybutadiene is basically loose; The downstream semi steel tire is slightly lower, and the support for Polybutadiene rubber is slightly weaker; To sum up, it is expected that in the short term, Polybutadiene will fluctuate in a narrow range after the rise of the cost supported price, and it may fall slightly in the middle of the month. If the downstream construction starts after the rainy season, if it actively improves, the price of Polybutadiene will continue to rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market was relatively strong in July, with various wire drawing brands fluctuating and rising. As of July 31st, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7400 yuan/ton, with a+3.29% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, some domestic units in the propylene sector underwent maintenance at the beginning of this month. Supply in the Shandong region was tightened, and the quotation was actively pushed up. In the latter half of the year, the positive impact of the international crude oil rise was evident, boosting market sentiment such as propylene. Downstream investors actively entered the market, and the trading atmosphere on the market improved. At the end of the month, upstream propane prices in PDH were also relatively strong, while coal prices remained stable. The overall strength of polypropylene upstream is relatively strong, which provides reasonable support for the cost side.

The raw materials in all directions have steadily increased, and the cost support for PP is still acceptable. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained at around 74% this month, with a relatively flat position compared to the previous period. The overall supply of goods was stable, and the on-site supply of goods was sufficient. In terms of demand, it tends to be average, with the main downstream plastic weaving operating at 40% to 50%. In terms of film materials and injection molding, the operating rate of enterprises remains at the previous level, and the overall position is relatively good. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is average, and procurement mainly maintains production.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31st, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7387 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+3.50% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -10.21% compared to the same period last year. This month, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, maintained a low horizontal load, and the overall operating rate level was adjusted narrowly at around 30%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is weak, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is average. Enterprises have average efforts in replenishing fiber PP. The price increase is due to the gradual depletion of polypropylene inventory and the strengthening of costs, and it is expected that fiber materials may continue to operate in a strong manner in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, this month’s melt blown PP market fluctuated and rose. As of July 31st, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is about 8050 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+2.22%, and there is a year-on-year decrease of 14.36%. At present, there is little domestic news on health events, and local social news is powerless to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. There is also no significant boost in overseas demand. Affected by the cost side and destocking, melt blown material enterprises have increased their factory prices. It is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a volatile consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has risen in July. The market for raw materials such as propylene and crude oil has risen, and the support for the market from the cost side has increased. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is average, and the demand for goods tends to maintain production, while the demand release is flat. Market orders are at a low season level. However, overall inventory is gradually decreasing, and it is expected that the PP market may continue to lean towards consolidation and operation.

Price trend

After the domestic ABS market rose in July, it fell back, and spot prices fluctuated. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the average price of ABS sample products was 10500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In July, the load of the ABS industry showed an increasing trend. In the early stage, there were more enterprise maintenance and independent load reduction. The current operating rate has increased by nearly 10% to over 87% compared to the beginning of the month, and the on-site supply of goods has increased. At the end of the month, there was a significant increase in inventory, with an overall increase of over 150000 tons. The supply side’s support for the spot market is gradually weakening.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials this month has remained stable with two increases. Among them, the raw material acrylonitrile market fluctuated slightly and remained stable. In the first half of the month, the raw material price was relatively strong and there was an increase in price. The negative outlook gradually dissipated, and the support for acrylonitrile leveled off; Downstream construction fluctuates at low levels, resulting in poor demand for acrylonitrile; At the end of the month, the supply side slightly declined, providing slight support for the acrylonitrile market. The price of acrylonitrile rose in the first half of the month, but the rise in the second half was sluggish and slightly declined.

The price of butadiene in China has gradually increased this month. At the beginning of the month, there was a strong increase in suppliers, which boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, but downstream companies resisted high prices. In the middle of the month, there was a concentration of parking news, and the transaction price of the external market was relatively high, which boosted the sentiment of domestic merchants; The expectation of supply side at the end of the month has led to cautious downstream inquiries, and the increase in the butadiene market has weakened.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fluctuated and increased in July. The early decline in styrene market was the main trend, but the price rebounded this month with a significant increase. The main reason for the increase is that the international crude oil price fluctuates higher, driving the pure benzene market to continue to rise, with strong cost support, small increase in downstream construction, increased spot transactions, more favorable styrene, and rising market.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have shown a decline in stocking enthusiasm. Due to factors such as season and power restrictions, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers decreased, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in poor overall demand.

Future Market Forecast

This month, the three upstream materials of ABS saw mixed ups and downs, providing reasonable support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant gradually rose within the month of construction, and market inventory increased simultaneously. The demand side support has fallen, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern has been maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue to be weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market has been relatively strong recently, with overall increases in various wire drawing brands. As of July 28th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7400 yuan/ton, with a+3.29% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, international crude oil rose this week, while driving up the trend of the propylene market. In addition, with a wide reduction in propylene prices in the early stage, the current downstream purchasing willingness is still acceptable, and the market has been repaired. At the same time, upstream propane prices in PDH are also relatively strong, while coal prices remain stable. The overall strength of polypropylene upstream is relatively strong, which provides reasonable support for the cost side.

The raw materials in all directions have steadily increased, and the cost support for PP is still acceptable. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained above 74% this week, with a relatively flat position compared to the previous period. The overall supply of goods was stable, and the on-site supply of goods was sufficient. In terms of demand, it tends to be average, with the main downstream plastic weaving operating at 40% to 50%. In terms of film materials and injection molding, the operating rate of enterprises remains at the previous level, and the overall position is relatively good. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is average, and procurement mainly maintains production.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 28th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7387 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of 3.50% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -9.36% compared to the same period last year. This week, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, maintained a low level of load, with an overall operating rate of around 30%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is weak, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is average. Enterprises have average efforts in replenishing fiber PP. The price increase is due to the overall inventory reduction of polypropylene and the positive impact of stronger costs. It is expected that fiber materials may continue to operate in a stronger direction in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, this week’s melt blown PP market saw a narrow rise. As of July 28th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society is around 8050 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+2.22%, and there is a 14.06% decrease compared to the same period last year. At present, there is little domestic news on health events, and local social news is powerless to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. There is also no significant boost in overseas demand. Affected by the cost side and destocking, melt blown material enterprises have increased their factory prices. It is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a volatile consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has been rising recently. The market for raw materials such as propylene and crude oil has risen, and the support for the market from the cost side has increased. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is average, and the demand for goods tends to maintain production, while the demand release is flat. Market orders

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic butadiene market in July saw a unilateral upward trend. From July 1st to 27th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 5973 yuan/ton to 7201 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20.56% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 26.03%.

At the beginning of the month, major production enterprises such as Sinopec raised their factory quotations, which boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, but downstream companies resisted high prices. The transaction of some offshore cargo in South Korea and Southeast Asia is still acceptable, but the price is still lower than the domestic spot price, so it is temporarily difficult to bring a significant boost to the domestic market.

In mid month, the domestic butadiene market saw a significant increase. On the one hand, parking news was concentrated, and the utilization rate of production capacity in the butadiene industry decreased; The high transaction price of the external market has boosted the sentiment of domestic merchants; At the same time, the downstream synthetic rubber market has strengthened, the price difference between upstream and downstream has widened, and the fundamentals of the butadiene market have been supported.

In the latter half of the month, prices for external and domestic production enterprises were firm, boosting merchants’ attitude towards offering. At the same time, downstream construction and profit conditions were still good, and there was some support for demand in the face of the market. With the arrival of imported cargo at the port, port inventory has increased, and some early maintenance equipment has restarted, leading to an increase in domestic production. Supply side expectations have led to cautious downstream inquiries, and the increase in butadiene market prices has weakened.

On the cost side, the crude oil market surged in July, and WTI crude oil reached its highest point in the past three months. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.74 per barrel, an increase of $1.67 or 2.0%. The oil market has been boosted by the expected tightening of supply and continued fermentation, as well as the rebound in demand. As of July 26th, the Federal Reserve announced a 25bp interest rate hike, coupled with a lower than expected decline in US crude oil inventories, resulting in profit taking in crude oil futures and pressure on prices.

In July, the price of domestic local refining Naphtha continued to rise. Supported by the just need of terminal restructuring, refineries actively pushed it up, and the deal was good. As of July 27, the benchmark price of Naphtha of the business community was 8134.00 yuan/ton, up 5.24% from 7729.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The cost of butadiene is significantly positive.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec East China Sales Company has repeatedly raised the price of butadiene to 7200 yuan/ton. The short-term supply side of butadiene is affected by a bullish trend.

On the demand side, due to the favorable cost of butadiene and the impact of production enterprise equipment maintenance, some products in the downstream synthetic rubber market have shown a significant increase, while downstream industry profits are still acceptable. There is currently no significant drag on the demand side. The demand for butadiene is relatively strong.

In terms of external trading: On July 26th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $665-675 per ton; China CFR reports 715-725 US dollars per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $305- $315 per ton; FD Northwestern Europe closed at 465-475 euros/ton.

In the future, it is predicted that some maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and there is an expectation of an increase in domestic production. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will be mainly volatile and organized.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of July 25, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 7800 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1 (reference price of propylene glycol 7166), the price increased by 667 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.84%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that since July (7.1-7.25), the overall domestic propylene glycol market has shown a “first decline and then rise” operating trend. In early July, the propylene glycol market was generally weak and slightly declining, with a high cost side providing some cost support for propylene glycol. However, downstream demand performance was poor and demand was dragging down. In the early stages of July, the overall decline in the propylene glycol market was the main trend. As of July 15th, the domestic propylene glycol market price was referenced around 7000-7300 yuan/ton, and the high price was referenced around 7500 yuan/ton.

In late July, the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole experienced a rebound, with some propylene glycol plants being shut down for maintenance. The on-site supply of propylene glycol decreased, and the spot circulation was tight. The tight prices were good, and the propylene glycol market began to rise strongly. The market center was moving upwards. As of July 25th, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 7700-7900 yuan/ton, with a 10.38% increase in late July.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, after the propylene glycol market has risen to a relatively high level, the wait-and-see sentiment on the market has become stronger, downstream stocking has gradually become cautious, and the trading atmosphere on the market is relatively mild. The propylene glycol data analyst of the business company believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese market fell slightly this week (from July 14 to July 21). The price of Spot market in East China was 15900 yuan/ton on July 14, down 0.93%.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market maintained a weak trend of consolidation. As steel mills gradually entered the factory through bidding, the activity of manganese ore inquiries increased. The actual transaction situation was average, with manufacturers mainly purchasing in small quantities and prices showing slight confusion. The Qinzhou Port manganese mine has seen mixed ups and downs, with a relatively low supply of South African iron ore and a high concentration of cargo rights. The quotation has increased by about 1 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price has also increased, while other minerals have declined to varying degrees. As of July 21, the overall price of Port of Tianjin fluctuated slightly, with South Africa’s semi carbonate of 30.8-31 yuan/ton, Australia’s 39-39.5 yuan/ton and Gabon’s 37.3-37.5 yuan/ton; The transaction price of semi carbonic acid in Qinzhou Port is around 29.8 yuan/ton, the price of high grade Australian seeds is around 36 yuan/ton, the price of Australian blocks is 39 yuan/ton, the price of Gabon is 37-37.5 yuan/ton, and the price of high grade South Africa is 37.5-38 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for five consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight recovery in May, prices have been declining for five consecutive weeks since June.

The electrolytic manganese market has been operating weakly this week, with mainstream prices ranging from 14100 to 14200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 to 200 yuan/ton compared to last week. Recently, the overall market has been weak. After entering June, the electrolytic manganese market has been declining for five consecutive weeks, with slightly lower market sentiment and a narrow decline in the market. The overall downstream demand is weak. The changes in supply and demand are limited, and the realization is still weak. The performance of steel recruitment has been poor this week, with prices continuing to decline and market inquiries being weak. The downstream market still performs weakly, with a strong attitude towards price pressure, and the market continues to decline. The FOB price is between 1920-1950 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars per ton compared to last week. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and it is expected to remain weak in the future, waiting for more guidance on steel bidding prices.

This week, the silicon manganese market performed well, driven by the rise in market prices, spot prices briefly stopped falling and stabilized, and the market’s low sentiment slightly stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quotation for silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) on July 21st was around 6400-6550 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6463 yuan/ton.

Related data:

On July 23, the base metal index stood at 1214 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 89.10% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 29th week of 2023 (7.17-7.21), of which 3 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities in terms of increase were dysprosium metal (7.01%), dysprosium iron alloy (6.30%) and Dysprosium(III) oxide (6.02%). There are a total of 7 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-3.55%), copper (-1.09%), and antimony (-0.98%) being the top 3 products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.95%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7380.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7340.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51%. The current price has decreased by 5.90% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 27.33% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices have fallen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent decline in the potassium carbonate market has been the main trend, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. The market price of Potassium chloride was consolidated, the cost support was general, the downstream procurement remained just in demand, and the transaction of potassium carbonate market was light, and the market declined. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 6700-7300 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

In the near future, the overall trend of Potassium chloride market may decline in a narrow range, mainly finishing. On July 21, the distribution price of Potassium chloride of Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. was about 2700 yuan/ton, the quotation was temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Salt Lake and Zangger Potassium chloride prices were adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of Potassium chloride fluctuates with each other. The downstream demand is general, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand.

Recently, domestic Potassium chloride traders have a strong intention to support the price, and the market is expected to rise. Affected by cost support, it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will be slightly higher in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Domestic P-Xylene price trend:

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price trend rose this week. As of the weekend, the factory price of P-Xylene in China was 8400 yuan/ton, 1.82% higher than the price of 8250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 12.04% year on year.

The domestic supply of P-Xylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. However, in the maintenance of some P-Xylene devices, the spot supply is slightly tight, and the price of PX in the external market has risen. As of the 13th, the closing price in Asia was 1010-1012 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1036-1038 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has fluctuated mainly. On the whole, the operating rate of P-Xylene units in Asia is about 70%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has not changed much. Affected by the rise in external prices, the price of P-Xylene in the domestic market has risen.

This week’s crude oil price trend has risen, with the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $76.89 per barrel as of the 13th, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures at $81.36 per barrel. On the one hand, the production reduction of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) has exacerbated supply concerns. On the other hand, the United States Department of Energy’s plan to replenish the strategic oil reserve also warmed up the oil market. On July 7, the US announced that it would purchase an additional 6 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic oil reserve. The procurement plan will be carried out in October and November. Finally, the US dollar strengthened, Asian demand growth boosted international oil prices, supported by demand in the summer peak oil season, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data report on Wednesday showed a rapid decline in crude oil inventories. Multiple favorable factors supported the rising trend of international oil prices, which affected the rising trend of domestic P-Xylene market.

The downstream PTA market price trend has increased this week, with an average PTA market price of around 59100 yuan/ton as of the 14th. The price has increased by 2.86% this week. On the supply side of PTA, the operating rate of PTA has decreased to around 73% this week, and PTA factory inventory has slightly decreased, leading to a rise in PTA market prices. Downstream polyester is mainly in demand for restocking, and demand end textile enterprises have staged restocking actions. However, with the arrival of the high temperature season, textile and clothing consumption is in the off-season stage, with insufficient terminal orders and a slight increase. The weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 65%, and downstream PTA market prices are rising, while PX prices are rising.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current oil market is supported by favorable factors. In the short term, the price of crude oil is mainly rising, coupled with a slight rise in the downstream PTA market. However, the demand of the textile industry is weak, and the purchase on demand is mainly. In general, it is expected that the price of P-Xylene market will be stable in the later period.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and increased this week. As of July 14th, the spot nickel quotation was 173366.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 6 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight rebound in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro level, as China’s RMB exchange rate continues to rise, the highly anticipated Federal Reserve inflation data has been released. The data shows that the year-on-year increase in US CPI has continued to decline from 4% in May to 3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. It has been on a downward trend for the 12th consecutive month. Affected by the cooling of US inflation, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates have weakened, the US dollar continues to decline, and the metal market has reversed and turned the tide to welcome a long-awaited surge.

In terms of supply: The newly added production capacity of domestic electrolytic nickel production has been put into operation and increased, with a month on month increase in refined nickel production in June. Two new nickel production lines were added in Indonesia in June, and Russian nickel imports continued to arrive, impacting the domestic market. Nickel iron is facing a surplus situation, and supply surplus still puts pressure on nickel prices.

In terms of demand: The demand for pure nickel is differentiated in the terminal field. Maintain an overall attitude of buying stocks on dips and avoiding high prices. In terms of stainless steel, there has been a slight reduction in production due to the 300 series; Ternary precursor orders recovered, new energy and alloy demand improved, and the price of battery grade Nickel(II) sulfate rose slightly.

In summary, the global nickel explicit inventory is still at a historical low level, which is beneficial for nickel prices. The domestic supply side has increased, while traditional demand has weakened while new energy has increased. In the context of macroeconomic recovery both domestically and internationally, it is expected that the short-term volatility of nickel prices will be mainly strong.