1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of chlorinated paraffin fluctuated and increased this month. On October 1st, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5733 yuan/ton. On October 27th, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5866 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 2.33% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin increased in October. In the first half of October, the price of chlorinated paraffin slightly increased. Due to the continuous high prices of raw material liquid wax, some chlorinated paraffin manufacturers have raised prices with the increase of raw materials. But downstream procurement is based on demand, with cautious procurement requirements and average market trading. In the second half of October, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased and consolidated. The market for raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine has started to weaken, and cost support has weakened. There is currently no significant improvement on the demand side, and the overall market trading is light. As of October 27th, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 6300 yuan/ton for environmental protection, and the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 5000-5900 yuan/ton for national standard.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from July 31, 2023 to October 16, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic chlorinated paraffin cycle has seen mixed fluctuations. October saw a significant increase, with the largest increase of 1.16% in the week of October 2nd.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose first and then fell this month, and liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated in both directions this month, and the overall trend is fluctuating and weak. The market transaction is average, and the manufacturer is stable in shipping.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the market for chlorinated paraffin raw materials has started to weaken recently, and cost support is weak. At present, the performance of terminal demand is not good, and downstream purchases remain in demand, resulting in weak market transactions. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be weak in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2520.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2526.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.26%. Weekend prices fell by 0.82% year-on-year. On October 22, the urea commodity index was 117.52, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 111.37% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support increases, downstream demand weakens, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has significantly increased this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4498.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4900.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 8.94%, and the weekend price has decreased by 22.91% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a high level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) around 1290 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia has increased significantly, from 3566.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3800.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 6.54%, and the weekend price has decreased by 7.99% year-on-year. The significant increase in upstream raw material prices has increased support for urea prices. The price of melamine downstream of urea has temporarily stabilized this week, at 7175.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are currently not favorable. Agriculture has entered the off-season. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has decreased, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has weakened. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. From a supply perspective, some enterprises have completed maintenance, and daily urea production has further increased, resulting in sufficient supply.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In late October, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has significantly increased, and urea cost support has increased. Downstream agricultural demand has basically ended, while industrial demand is average. Indian bidding news has boosted industry sentiment. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with a good supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 66621.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.23% from the 66466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 6.05%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, it has fallen by 5% and increased by 6%. Recently, copper prices have rebounded slightly after a decline.

LME copper inventory continues to climb, accumulating to a two-year high.

Macroscopically, Powell’s unexpected singing boosted expectations of suspending interest rate hikes, and international oil prices rose to a new high in nearly two weeks. Domestically, a series of economic data released shows that the economy is still on the path of stable growth.

On the supply side: In September, China’s electrolytic copper production reached 1.012 million tons, an increase of 23000 tons month on month, an increase of 2.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.3%; In October, due to holiday factors, the load of the smelting plant has decreased month on month, with an estimated output of 99.6 million tons in October, a decrease of 1.58% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 10.50%; In October, three smelting plants began to put into production, but only one actually increased. The other two will not have an increase until November. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production will return to over 1 million tons in November. The spot processing fee TC for imported copper concentrate continues to be high, and smelting enterprises are increasing production. The domestic supply of recycled copper is tight, the profit from imported recycled copper has expanded, and the price difference of refined waste has decreased, far below the breakeven point.

On the demand side: The rebound in terminal consumption is weak, but some companies are buying on dips to replenish their inventory. Last week, the operating rate of precision copper rods was 82.75, an increase of 3.37 percentage points compared to the previous week; The operating rate of recycled copper rods is 31.67%, with a decrease of 9.49 percentage points in the circumferential ratio.

In summary, LME’s explicit inventory has continuously increased, with a slight decrease in copper production in October and a slight rebound in demand, but still weak. There has been some improvement in the macro aspect, but overall, there is no particularly good news. Given that copper prices are currently at the bottom and there is a low rebound demand, it is expected that copper prices will mainly operate with strong short-term fluctuations.

The price of plasticizer DOP fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 16th, the price of DOP was 11516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.60% compared to the price of 12200 yuan/ton on October 7th. This week, plasticizer prices have fallen from a high point, with no cost support, and DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 16th was 12500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13% compared to the fluctuating price of 12360 yuan/ton on October 7th. Upstream propylene prices have fallen, while the cost of isooctanol has decreased. This week, the downstream replenishment of isooctanol has ended, and the demand for isooctanol is poor. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and consolidated.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of phthalic anhydride on October 16th was 8375 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 3.87% compared to the price of 8712.50 yuan/ton on October 7th. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, the supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the downstream procurement situation is average. Some phthalic anhydride manufacturers have accumulated inventory, resulting in a decrease in the price of adjacent benzene and a decrease in the cost of phthalic anhydride. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the downstream replenishment of isooctanol has ended this week, resulting in poor customer procurement enthusiasm and poor demand for isooctanol; The price of ortho benzene has decreased, the cost of raw materials for phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen. Overall, the prices of plasticizer DOP raw materials have fluctuated and decreased, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, and demand is weak. The price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and decreased.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isopropanol has fallen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 9180 yuan/ton, while the average price over the weekend was 9060 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 1.31%.

Figure: Comparison of Price Trends of 8-10 Acetone and Isopropanol

The market price of isopropanol fell this week. After the National Day holiday, the market situation gradually weakened and the overall trading sentiment was poor. The upstream acetone market saw a decline in the acetone market, with weak cost support. Downstream procurement is cautious, with on-demand orders being the main focus. Most businesses maintain a wait-and-see attitude, with fewer inquiries and more wait-and-see, resulting in slow shipments. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 6200-6400 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6600-6800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market price fluctuated and declined this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetone was 7720 yuan/ton, while on Friday, the average price was 7425 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 3.82%. The acetone market has been operating weakly this week, with upstream going down. Traders are under pressure and eager to ship, while downstream market sentiment is sluggish, with few actual orders traded. From Monday to Thursday, the market continued to decline, with a slight rebound over the weekend and the overall decline being the main trend.

In terms of propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fell this week, with an average price of 7200.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7038.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price was lowered by 2.26%. The propylene market has had poor trading this week. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has decreased, and the overall market is relatively light. It is expected that the market situation will be weak in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that upstream acetone prices have fluctuated and declined, while the propylene market prices have fallen, resulting in weak overall cost support. Downstream markets are not actively buying goods, and market transactions are more cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that the isopropanol market will operate weakly in the short term.

The market for nitrile rubber increased significantly in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 28th, the price was 15900 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.57% from 14125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In September, the prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile, the raw materials for nitrile rubber, significantly increased, and the cost center of nitrile rubber increased; Downstream inquiries for nitrile rubber remain on demand, and market transactions are average. In September, domestic nitrile units such as Jinpu and Taixiang underwent maintenance. The overall market supply pressure was not high, and some brand resources were tight, resulting in a firm increase in factory prices for enterprises. At the end of the month, some downstream factories were shut down for vacation, and transactions for nitrile rubber were light. Some merchants offered small discounts on shipments. As of September 28th, the mainstream market price of Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China was 14900~15100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Nandi Nitrile 1052 is 17500-17700 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported at 15900~16100 yuan/ton.

In September, the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants slightly decreased.

In September, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile significantly increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 28th, the price of butadiene was 8710 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.21% from 7626 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of September 28th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9825 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.71% from 9037 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In September, the downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries started construction steadily, and overall demand for procurement continued. The supply of some grades of nitrile rubber on site was tight, and the price of nitrile rubber remained high; As the end of the month approaches, downstream construction starts to decline, and market transactions are light, with some merchants slightly loosening their offers.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society Nitrile Analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is temporarily stable, but the Nandi Nitrile Plant is scheduled to undergo maintenance in October. The pressure on the supply side in the later stage is still relatively low, and the downstream just needs to support the transaction atmosphere. However, the high price of raw materials is supported, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol significantly increased in September. The average price of the mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol in China increased from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10450.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.36%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 3.81% year-on-year. On September 27th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 50.36, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 51.39% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 16.98% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream distributors of neopentyl glycol have slightly increased this month.

From a cost perspective, the market price of isobutyraldehyde increased significantly in September. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 9.31%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 45.95% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly increased, and due to the impact of supply and demand, the support for the price of neopentyl glycol has increased.

Looking at the future market, the overall trend of neopentyl glycol in mid to early October may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market rose first and then fell this week, with various wire drawing brands operating in a volatile manner. As of September 22nd, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 8035.71 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+3.97% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: Recently, in terms of PP raw materials, international crude oil fell on Thursday night due to the Federal Reserve’s suspension of interest rate hikes. At the same time, it negatively affects the propylene market and suppresses market confidence. However, there is not much pressure on on-site inventory, and there is a strong willingness for upstream pricing, with a focus on stalemate operations. In terms of PDH, the supply of propane as a raw material has increased, but it has also weakened simultaneously. Only methanol showed an upward trend. Overall, the cost side support of polypropylene is loose.

The overall trend of raw materials in all directions is weak, and the cost side’s support for PP has weakened. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load has been around 79% recently, with a narrow upward adjustment compared to the previous period. Although there are new devices put into operation, it will take some time for stable shipments, so the overall supply of goods is stable, and the on-site supply pressure is temporarily stable. In terms of demand, it has leveled off compared to the early stage, with downstream plastic weaving operating at a horizontal level of over 40%. In terms of film materials and injection molding, the operating rate of enterprises has remained around 60%, and the overall position has remained in the early stage. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is based on demand procurement. After the PP price rises, there is a certain resistance to high price sources. At the same time, as the Double Festival approaches, the stocking demand is about to run out, and the drawing material first rises and then falls.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 22, the spot price of domestic fiber PP also rose first and then fell. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 8075 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+5.38% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 3.10% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have seen a low load increase, with an overall operating rate of around 37%. The demand for fiber materials in the market has increased compared to the previous period, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is still acceptable. The enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP have increased the industry load. It is expected that in the short term, fiber materials may enter a weak finishing stage due to the impact of weaker costs.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent melt blown PP market has been relatively strong. As of September 22nd, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is around 8200 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+1.23%, and there is a decrease of 10.22% compared to the same period last year. At present, the domestic and international news of the health incident has basically subsided, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is weak. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The price of meltblown non-woven fabrics has remained stable and fluctuated slightly, and it is expected that the market for meltblown materials may maintain the consolidation market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has been volatile this week. The overall trend of upstream raw materials has shifted from strong to weak, with loose support from the cost side to the market. Terminal enterprises continue to operate at the previous level, with a bias towards maintaining production and a certain resistance towards high priced goods. The current holiday is approaching, and the benefits of pre holiday stocking are gradually running out. It is expected that in the short term, the PP market may be hindered by the cost side drag and the upward trend will be hindered.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the recent trend of TDI prices in East China has been mainly stable. On September 18, the average market price in East China was 18033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19% compared to the price of 18000.00 yuan/ton on September 11, and a decrease of 5.09% compared to the previous month.

The domestic TDI market is stagnant and operating, with slight price fluctuations. Last week, the market learned that Shanghai Kesichuang was closed and the execution price was raised. At the same time, other factories had limited supply, the market supply was tight, and suppliers had a clear attitude of supporting the market. Traders followed the market, and the offer was raised. However, downstream demand was average, the stocking atmosphere was poor, market trading was light, and the TDI price increase was limited. The operators had a wait-and-see mentality.

The upstream toluene market continues to rise. On September 18th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 8380 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.70% compared to the price of 8240 yuan/ton on September 11th. The international crude oil price has risen, and the cost of toluene has been positive. At the same time, with the support of export orders, the price of toluene has increased simultaneously. However, domestic downstream demand is weak, and there is resistance towards high priced toluene, which to some extent limits the increase in toluene. The price of toluene has narrowed down.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from the business agency believe that the supplier’s stock is tight, the factory has a strong mentality of price competition, and downstream demand follow-up is insufficient. Coupled with resistance towards high prices, the enthusiasm for entering the market is average, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market, with insufficient positive support. As the National Day holiday approaches, considering downstream reserve demand, it is expected that the TDI market in the future will continue to rise. Please pay attention to the release of supplier information.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the recent price trend of the domestic rare earth market has been mainly volatile, while the price trend of the domestic light rare earth market has remained stable. The rare earth index on September 17 was 516 points, a decrease of 48.76% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 90.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price trend of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy has temporarily stabilized, while the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has slightly decreased. As of the 18th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 645000 yuan/ton, and the price remained unchanged this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 525000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.41% this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 537500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of neodymium metal is 665000 yuan/ton, and it has remained stable this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 670000 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 527500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week.

In early September, the trend of the light rare earth market rose. Due to the impact of regional rainfall weather, some rare earth mining enterprises were restricted in production, and some rare earth manufacturers took the initiative to reduce production, which further slowed down the growth rate of spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal plants in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the price trend of light rare earth market will rise due to supply reduction. However, in the middle of the year, downstream resistance has intensified, and the procurement of inquiries has come to an end. In addition, downstream magnetic material enterprises have reduced new orders, intensifying upstream and downstream competition, and the domestic light rare earth market price trend is mainly stable.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 843000 and 846000 units respectively in August, with a month on month increase of 4.7% and 8.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 22% and 27%, respectively; From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.434 million and 5.374 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 36.9% and 39.2%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices. The light rare earth market still has support.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the export of rare earth and its products reached 9618 tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; From January to August, the cumulative export of rare earth and its products reached 79083 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market. The price trend of the light rare earth market was fluctuating.

Future Forecast: With the recovery of rare earth raw material supply in the later stage, the ordering and procurement of magnetic material enterprises will come to an end. It is expected that in the short term, the pressure on rare earth market prices will increase, and the rare earth market will remain mainly volatile; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.