1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda was relatively strong in January. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of caustic soda in Shandong was 827 yuan/ton. On January 24th, the caustic soda price in Shandong was 995 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.31% compared to January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda tends to be strong in the operating market. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1000-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is relatively strong, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 950-1050 yuan/ton. Due to the maintenance of caustic soda enterprises at the beginning of the month, the inventory of the Shandong liquid alkali market has decreased, and the overall operation is relatively strong. Currently, the overall inventory is still not high. The tight supply situation in the market has led to an increase in caustic soda prices, and the export business has entered a period of explosive growth. Although downstream demand is approaching the Spring Festival, it is still relatively positive.

On January 23, the Business Social Chemical Index was 834 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 40.43% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 39.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been relatively strong, with low inventory in some areas and active downstream demand. However, pre holiday stocking is nearing completion. It is expected that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later part of the Spring Festival, depending on downstream market demand.

Bromine is the only non-metallic substance in liquid form at room temperature, with the chemical formula Br2. It has a deep reddish brown color and a pungent odor. Bromine has lively physicochemical properties and can form a wide variety of inorganic bromides as well as a large number of organic compounds containing bromine. Due to the unique physicochemical properties of different bromides, bromine has become a widely used basic chemical raw material and is one of the key raw materials for chemical production and even the entire industrial production.

Let’s take a look at the price of bromine: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the overall price of bromine in 2024 presents a “w” shape, with an average market price of 24800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 21900 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a price drop of 11.69%.

From the monthly K-bar chart of bromine, it can be seen that in 2024, there were 6 months of increase and 6 months of decrease. The largest increase was in May, with prices rising by 13.78%, and the largest decrease was in March, with prices falling by 16.22%.

Let’s take a look at the annual comparison chart of bromine. From the annual comparison chart, it can be seen that the overall price of bromine has been weak this year, and its price is at a historical low of about 5 years.

Let’s take a closer look at the price trend. In the first stage, prices declined from January to early April, and this stage is in a continuous downward trend. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 24800 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the market average was 18200 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 26.61%. In the first quarter of 2024, prices have been unilaterally declining. At the beginning of the year, bromine manufacturers still had a small amount of inventory due to the Spring Festival, mainly consuming inventory. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are operating at low loads, with a low willingness to purchase and a focus on purchasing for essential needs. Downstream demand is weak, and there is sufficient supply of imported bromine and seawater bromine entering the market, resulting in a continuous decline in bromine prices until early April.

In the second stage, from mid April to June 22, the price increased from the average market price of 18100 yuan/ton in mid April to around 23500 yuan/ton on June 22, with a price increase of 29.83%. Mainly due to the stocking of goods by enterprises before May Day, prices experienced an upward trend, which continued until late June.

The third stage, the consolidation period from July to mid October, saw prices fluctuate around 19800-20600 yuan/ton. Mainly due to poor demand, enterprises have a stable mentality, and their intention to stabilize prices is more obvious. They mainly hold onto goods and are reluctant to sell. However, in the case of weak downstream expectations, it is difficult to raise prices. The game of supply and demand is dominated by price consolidation.

The fourth stage, which rose in late October and then fell. Mainly due to manufacturer maintenance, the price of bromine has increased. But with the price increase, downstream resistance began, and there was no driving force for the price increase of bromine, so the price subsequently consolidated and operated mainly.

The overall price of bromine in 2024 shows a “W” shape. Can the price improve in 2024

On the supply side: From the supply side, there has been relatively little change in the supply of bromine in China, and the overall supply trend is relatively stable. Due to the decreasing underground brine resources, the increase in bromine production capacity in China is slow. The data shows that the domestic production in 2024 will be 92000 tons, with an average annual capacity utilization rate of 58%, which is not significantly different from last year.

In terms of import and export: Currently, the self-sufficiency rate of China’s domestic bromine market is not high, and bromine heavily relies on imports. China’s bromine self-sufficiency rate has remained at a low level in recent years, but the dependence on bromine imports is high, and the supply of the bromine industry chain is constrained by countries such as Israel, the United States, and India. Customs data shows that the annual import volume of bromine in China will be close to 80000 tons in 2024.

In terms of fuel, the long-term sluggish downstream demand has led to slow inventory consumption by manufacturers. The main flame retardant, tetrabromobisphenol A, maintains low load operation with low prices. The price of tetrabromobisphenol A is close to the cost line, resulting in a significant compression of profits. At the same time, there is a lack of order support. Bromine procurement is mainly sporadic replenishment, while flame retardant manufacturers only focus on essential replenishment. The data shows that the downstream demand for bromine in 2024 is about 150000 tons.

Prediction: Business Society analysis believes that the price of bromine has been weak and consolidating in the near future. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have generally supported the market in the near future. As the year-end approaches, most companies have stocked up and prices will not fluctuate too much in the near future. The change in bromine supply in our country is relatively small, and we rely on imported bromine from abroad. Overall, it is expected that bromine prices will remain weak in the short term. However, as the weather warms up after the year and businesses resume production, downstream demand may recover, and bromine may rebound after the year, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the domestic fluorite prices have remained stable, with an average price of 3603.75 yuan/ton as of the weekend, unchanged from the early week price of 3603.75 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 7.17%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. In addition, with the decrease in temperature and the approaching Spring Festival, the number of holiday enterprises has increased, and the fluorite trading atmosphere is light. This week.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market still acceptable

This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has recently been negotiated at 10800-11300 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid has declined to more than 50%. In January, the pricing of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers decreased, and the price of fluorite remained stagnant due to this news.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, but the refrigerant production situation has declined, and there has been a continuous destocking throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the foreign trade market prices are still acceptable, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The refrigerant market has experienced a decline in production, which has led to a suppression of the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream refrigerant industry has experienced a decline in production, and there have been more companies on vacation recently, resulting in a light trading atmosphere. Overall, the domestic fluorite market is expected to remain stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has rebounded and stopped falling this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 827 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 885 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.01% and a year-on-year increase of 12.31%. On January 9th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 822 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 41.29% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 37.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region has risen, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 850-900 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 900-960 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). This week, the inventory of caustic soda enterprises has declined, and the price of caustic soda purchased by downstream alumina enterprises has increased. Downstream alumina enterprises are approaching the end of the year, and their stocking enthusiasm is good. In addition, the strong operation of alumina prices has driven up the price of caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 53rd week of 2025 (12.30-1.3), there were 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are: baking soda (0.13%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are: calcium carbide (-2.94%), light soda ash (-1.95%), and PVC (-0.36%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.85%.

Business analysts believe that in recent times, caustic soda prices have been operating strongly, and the alumina industry has been operating strongly. Before the year, chlor alkali enterprise inventories remained low, and the market trading atmosphere was relatively positive. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a strong operating market in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, in December, the raw material market weakened, demand was weak, and the domestic adipic acid market fluctuated and fell. On December 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, and on December 31st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41%.

Negative led to a volatile decline in the adipic acid market in December

At the beginning of December, the domestic adipic acid market continued to rise. Mainly due to the rising prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone, the cost has increased, and the demand for purchasing adipic acid from end-users has increased. With the strong bullish sentiment of adipic acid manufacturers and multiple bullish factors supporting it, the adipic acid market continues to rise, with prices rising. The mainstream market price is 8500-8600 yuan/ton, and the market is recovering.

In mid month, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline weakly. Mainly due to the weakening of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone, limited support for cost increases, and weak demand for adipic acid procurement from end-users. In addition to the oversupply in the adipic acid market and the combination of multiple negative factors, the adipic acid market continues to decline weakly, with the mainstream market price ranging from 8100-8400 yuan/ton, indicating a weak market trend.

At the end of the month, the domestic adipic acid market continued to weaken. The main reason is that the upstream raw material pure benzene and cyclohexanone have poor market conditions, with limited cost boosting effect, and the terminal demand for adipic acid procurement is average. Due to the ongoing supply pressure in the adipic acid market and the dominance of negative factors, the adipic acid market continues to weaken, with mainstream market prices ranging from 8100-8200 yuan/ton, indicating a weak and stable trend.

The adipic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the raw material market is weakening and the terminal demand is not good, so the adipic acid market will continue to weaken in January.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market first rose and then stabilized in December, with a sideways consolidation operation until the end of the month. From December 1st to 31st, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 18150 yuan/ton to 18183 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year price increase of 15.33%.

In the first half of the month, the price of domestic aggregated MDI rose, and mainstream factories in China were undergoing centralized maintenance. Under the expectation of tight supply, downstream actively entered the market and upstream actively pushed up prices.

In mid to late month, the aggregated MDI market will be organized and operated. Maintenance companies are driving one after another, downstream demand is following up, market inventory is low, and MDI prices remain stable at high levels.

On the supply side, the 350000 ton/year plant of Shanghai Huntsman is expected to undergo maintenance in mid November, which will last for about a month; The 600000 tons/year MDI plant of Shanghai Covestro is expected to undergo maintenance in mid to late November, lasting about 25 days; The 400000 tons/year MDI plant of BASF in Chongqing will begin maintenance on December 15th and is expected to be maintained for about a month.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market has fluctuated and fallen. As of December 31st, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 7267 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has fluctuated and risen. As of December 31st, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society was 9375 yuan/ton. Pure benzene has experienced a significant decline in the past six months, which has weakened support for polymer MDI.

On the demand side, downstream procurement is urgently needed, and low-priced goods are still available for transactions. As the end of the year approaches, there is a demand for stockpiling downstream.

Future forecast: The current inventory level in the MDI market is low and spot prices are tight, which will boost the MDI market. However, downstream demand is in a low season, and it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of December 30th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7766.67 yuan/ton. In December, cyclohexane prices were the mainstay with a narrow upward trend, rising by 1.3% for the whole month. Currently, downstream demand is still acceptable, but upstream cost support is average. The mainstream market price is around 8000 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Upstream pure benzene, there have been significant changes in the pure benzene market this month. The stable operation of the pure benzene market price was the main trend in mid to early December, and there was a large-scale decline in the pure benzene market at the end of the month. Port inventories continue to increase, international crude oil prices are stabilizing and rebounding, while pure benzene prices in the European market remain in resonance, showing signs of rising and falling, and the East Asian market is stabilizing with some decline.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that it is expected that the market price of cyclohexane will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend in the short term.

In December, various favorable factors supported the continued rise of epichlorohydrin. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9225.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.22% compared to the beginning of this month (9025.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: The price of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side varies. At present, the factory price of mainstream liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong Province is 150-200 yuan/ton. The price of raw material glycerol has risen sharply. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6895.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The atmosphere of epoxy chloropropane in the domestic market continues to rise. Affected by factors such as rising raw material prices, the production enthusiasm of epichlorohydrin enterprises has increased, and the current operating rate has risen to 55%. Some leading enterprises are operating at full capacity. As of the 19th, the price of epichlorohydrin in Shandong region is 9400-9600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of over 500 yuan/ton.

Downstream demand side: Downstream epoxy resin is affected by raw materials, leading to an increase in market orders and high prices. Manufacturers’ stocking expectations have also increased. At present, factories are queuing up to pick up goods, and the market is in short supply. The quotation for solid epoxy resin in East China is 13200-13400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton. There is an expected increase in demand for epichlorohydrin in the short term.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that due to factors such as rising raw material prices, the enthusiasm of epoxy chloropropane production enterprises to start production has increased, downstream market orders have increased, and there is an expectation of rising raw material demand. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market may have a slight increase in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in market prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 1546 yuan/ton. On December 19th, the baking soda commodity index was 102.61, a decrease of 0.13 points from yesterday, a decrease of 56.49% from the cycle high of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 16.25% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1450-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1850 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1538 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable this week. As of December 13th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11583.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of this week.

Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remained stable at a high level this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, domestic fluorite prices have risen this week. As of December 13th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society fluorite was 3678.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Maintain stability in the downstream refrigerant market. Some factories have offered price increases. Affected by quota management and maintenance plans, most units in the refrigerant industry entered a shutdown state in December, and the operating load gradually decreased, resulting in a continued cold atmosphere towards raw material procurement.

Market forecast: The market price of raw materials remains stable at a high level, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. We adopt a wait-and-see and cautious attitude towards high priced raw material purchases. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the later period.