According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, 85% of industrial formic acid in China has been operating steadily recently. As of March 4th, the reference price of Shengyi Society was 3050 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39% compared to the same period in February and a decrease of 6.87% compared to the same period last year, reaching the highest level in 2025.

Raw material methanol: Some domestic methanol projects are undergoing maintenance, but the start of production has slightly declined; However, the port’s imports in February and March were relatively low, supported by stable external procurement of olefin raw materials from the mainland. The overall sales pressure in upstream production areas was not high, and traditional downstream demand procurement was essential. The raw material methanol was running steadily at a high level.

Raw material sulfuric acid: The domestic sulfuric acid market is showing a slight upward trend, with an increase of 20-60 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the sulfuric acid market is good, and the demand in the terminal market is increasing. The shipment is still relatively good, and the market price is gradually increasing. In the short term, the price of sulfuric acid may continue to rise.

Downstream pesticide demand: The fertilizer and pesticide industry has entered the peak production season, with short-term demand expanding. Some products have limited instantaneous production, resulting in supply shortages and price increases. However, most products are focused on stability.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the upstream support for formic acid is strong, and downstream demand is improving. It is expected that formic acid prices will remain stable and strong in the short term.

Entering February, the market gradually bottomed out and stabilized, driven by the dual benefits of tightening supply and recovering demand. In the latter half of the year, the market started and prices rose sharply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province increased by 11.84% during the month. At the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Device maintenance increases, northern supply continues to tighten

From a supply perspective, the overall supply of liquid ammonia in the market tightened in February, with some equipment undergoing maintenance. On the one hand, there were more companies scheduled for maintenance during the Spring Festival, and on the other hand, as the end of the month approached, the number of faulty equipment increased, affecting some production, mainly concentrated in northern regions such as Shandong, Henan, and Shaanxi. So, the increase in liquid ammonia prices in the northern market is relatively strong. Taking the Shandong market as an example, in the last week of the month, manufacturers increased their prices by more than 200 yuan/ton. In addition, the increase in self use of ammonia plants has resulted in fewer sources of goods entering the market.

The overall performance of the industrial chain is strong

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain chart, there has been a slight improvement in the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia. The upstream natural gas continued to rise in February, with an increase of up to 7.34%. At the end of the month, the upward trend continued, with a slight slowdown in the increase, and the cost remained favorable. In addition, the downstream sector has slightly rebounded, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers continues to rise, increasing from 30% before the year to over 50%. The industrial sector maintains a strong demand, and the overall demand for liquid ammonia remains on the rise.

Downstream fertilizer demand increases

In terms of downstream related products such as urea, urea is the first to rebound. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, urea rose as high as 8.63% in February, and the upward trend slowed down at the end of the month, maintaining a strong market rigidity. As of the end of the month, the mainstream quotation for small and medium-sized particles in Shandong region is around 1870 yuan/ton. The domestic urea fundamentals are expected to improve, and the demand for green manure is increasing, which has increased the demand for urea. In addition, industrial demand has continued to increase, and urea has experienced a small peak in production and sales. Manufacturers are also cooperating to release production pace, and market sentiment continues to heat up.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that in the short term, the liquid ammonia market is expected to maintain a strong trend. The main reason is that the supply side may remain tight in the near future. Although there are expectations for the recovery of faulty devices, there are too many planned maintenance companies. It is expected that prices will remain high at the beginning of next month. However, from mid month to the end of the month, due to the impact of device recovery expectations, the supply is expected to increase, and the market will show some supply pressure. There is a possibility of a decline in the price of liquid ammonia.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in February fluctuated and stabilized after a decline, with most brand products experiencing narrow price reductions. As of February 28th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.49% compared to the price level at the beginning of February.

price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of remote upstream crude oil, the United States imposed tariffs this month and Trump requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices, while US crude oil inventories remained high. With the easing of the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, the market’s concerns about reduced demand for crude oil have widened. Prices are suppressed by various factors, resulting in weak fluctuations in oil prices. The favorable effects of low pre holiday prices and reduced supply in the propylene sector have gradually dissipated, coupled with a weakening upstream market, leading to a decline. Lack of active guidance on propane, with a focus on price consolidation. Overall, the PP raw material market in February was weak, providing moderate support for PP costs.

Supply side:

In February, the load of domestic PP enterprises was gradually reduced, but the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has decreased from 83% at the end of January to 77%, and the domestic weekly average production has dropped to around 730000 tons. No production capacity will be implemented within the month, and the previously accumulated discharge pressure from the new equipment is gradually being absorbed. The maintenance and resumption of work of PP equipment in the future are mutually apparent, and from the results, it is expected that there will be a narrow relaxation trend in shipment volume. The supply side’s support for PP spot prices is expected to remain stable with small fluctuations.

In terms of demand:

The recovery of PP demand side in February was relatively slow, and the trading volume for the whole month was roughly at a weak level. At the end of the month, the resumption of work in enterprises is gradually in place, and the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice is showing signs of recovery. The inventory of plastic woven enterprises has been partially digested. Although there was no significant increase in volume on the spot, it is expected that the potential for buyers to stock up in the future will expand. Overall, the demand side is showing a positive trend.

Future forecast

After the domestic PP market price fell in February, it sorted out. From a fundamental perspective, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is poor, industry supply is expected to level off, there is a trend of recovery in consumption, and market momentum has the potential to rise. But in the short term, the bullish momentum is not strong, and the market momentum is still insufficient. It is expected that the PP price market will continue to consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China is 6760 yuan/ton, which is 0.60% higher than the reference average price of 6720 yuan/ton on February 18th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 7133 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average of 7133 yuan/ton on February 18th.

2、 Market analysis

Market Aspects

This week, the domestic price of phosphoric acid mainly fluctuated slightly. As of February 25th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6650-7300 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has fallen this week. At present, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is loose, and downstream demand for replenishment is high, resulting in low purchasing intentions and mostly low-priced transactions. Short term domestic yellow phosphorus prices are expected to remain weak.

Raw material phosphate rock market. The phosphate ore market has remained stable this week, maintaining a high and steady operation. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, and market trading is still acceptable. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

Supply and demand side

The supply and demand balance in the phosphoric acid market this week. At present, the supply of phosphoric acid in the market is stable, with stable shipments on the demand side and downstream replenishment mainly for urgent needs. Expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent phosphate market has experienced narrow fluctuations, with overall stability being the main factor. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has decreased, and there is insufficient cost support. The market transaction atmosphere is good, and the transaction volume is still acceptable. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will mainly experience consolidation and operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market fluctuated within a certain range this week, with a slight overall decline. From February 17 to February 24, 2025, the mixed xylene price was 6670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. There are slight differences in performance among different regions, with Shandong experiencing a decline followed by an increase, and downstream demand initially weak and then strong during the week. The PX and oil blending industries actively entered the market for procurement, driving prices in Shandong to fall first and then rise. Affected by high inventory, the spot market in East China is under pressure and experiencing a slight decline. The overall inventory in southern China is high, and the market is under pressure to decline.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. As of February 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.40 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.43 per barrel. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, and the premium of oil prices has fallen; In addition, the increase in US crude oil inventories has affected investor confidence. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, the US has imposed tariffs and Trump has requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices. In addition, US crude oil inventories remain high, and there are still concerns in the market about crude oil demand, which has suppressed crude oil prices; On the other hand, the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased, and crude oil market prices remain low.

Supply side: Sinopec xylene quotation summary. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales of equipment. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of February 24th, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6750-6800 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On February 24th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7500 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities was stable, with normal sales, and the price was temporarily stable compared to February 17th. As of February 21st, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 860-862 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 885-887 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of only 1 US dollar/ton compared to the closing price on February 14th.

Market forecast: The overall outlook for the crude oil market is weak, with limited cost support. In terms of supply, Shandong’s local refining enterprises have recently had low inventory, and downstream purchasing intentions are still acceptable. Inventory in the East China region has been running at a relatively high level recently. In terms of demand, except for Shandong region, which has a good purchasing intention, the downstream purchasing intention in other regions has been relatively weak in recent times, and the ability to receive goods is limited. Overall, Shandong region is expected to operate steadily, moderately, and strongly under the support of demand, with slight upward potential, while other regions are expected to have weaker trends.

This week (2.15-2.21), the dichloromethane market in Shandong continued to lower prices and offer discounts for sales. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province on February 21 was 2410 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 6.32%.

The supply of dichloromethane in the Shandong market is stable, downstream demand is slowly recovering, and there is a lack of support for essential purchases. The pressure on enterprises to ship has increased, and inventory is high. Enterprises continue to lower prices and offer discounts for shipments. At present, the market is in a supply-demand game, with downstream demand supporting it, and there is still a bearish sentiment. On February 21st, the mainstream ex factory price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2350-2400 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The operating load of the methane chloride unit in the enterprise has remained stable this week. The following is the operation status of the unit:

Cost aspect: The methanol market atmosphere has eased, supply is tight, and the market has fluctuated slightly upwards. On February 20th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2595 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% from the beginning of the week. The liquid chlorine market is experiencing a weak downward trend, with stable supply and reduced demand. In order to promote shipments, companies have slightly lowered the price of liquid chlorine.

Demand side: Dichloromethane is widely used, downstream production is gradually recovering, and procurement enthusiasm is not high. The operating rate of the refrigerant R32 industry is relatively low, and the overall supply is tight. In the long run, there is an expected increase in demand, and it is expected that the market will maintain a stable and upward trend in the future.

Business analysts believe that in the short term, enterprises will mainly consume inventory, and it is expected that dichloromethane will operate steadily, moderately, and weakly.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On February 17th, the average market price was 7846.33 yuan/ton

Analysis: Today, the focus of the domestic pure benzene market is downward. Shandong’s local refining enterprises have mainly lowered their prices. Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have stable prices for pure benzene, with a price of 7750 yuan/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in East China is consolidating at a high level. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is average. It is expected that the pure benzene market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the short term, and actual transactions will be subject to negotiation.

The liquid ammonia market has experienced continuous fluctuations and downturns in the previous two months, gradually bottoming out and stabilizing in February. This week (2.10-14), domestic liquid ammonia rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 2.15%. The main reason is the stable downstream demand, and the high-speed lifting after the holiday has ensured smooth transportation. Partial maintenance of equipment in northern regions has relieved supply pressure. In addition, downstream resumption of work after the holiday has increased procurement volume. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2250-2450 yuan/ton.

Device maintenance increases supply pressure relief

In terms of supply, after the holiday, the supply is basically stable, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. The production of equipment in the main production areas of the north has slightly decreased. Since February, there has been an increase in maintenance equipment, but companies such as Runfeng have not resumed work. And the temporary shutdown of ammonia companies due to malfunctions has affected some of their production. Mainly manifested in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and the Two Lakes region. At the beginning of the week, prices generally increased, but prices stabilized from mid week to the weekend, with manufacturers raising prices by over 100 yuan/ton this week. The market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The overall industrial chain has slightly improved

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia has slightly improved, and the upstream natural gas has shaken off the sluggish situation in January, with prices rising this week by 2.74%. In addition, the downstream sector has generally rebounded, mainly reflected in the strong rigidity of downstream demand and a slight rebound in agricultural demand; In addition, industrial demand remains primarily driven by essential needs. The main downstream product is urea (0.98%).

Downstream urea market slightly rebounds

In terms of downstream related products such as urea, the urea market has rebounded this week with a slight increase in prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic urea market has risen by 0.98%. As of this Friday, the mainstream quotation for small and medium-sized particles in Shandong region is around 1700-1750 yuan/ton. The increase in urea prices is very limited, mainly due to the fact that agricultural demand has not truly improved, only due to post holiday purchases by end-users and speculative behavior by traders to buy at the bottom. The market trading atmosphere has improved compared to the previous period. The increase in shipments from urea factories is limited, but inventory pressure has slightly eased. The short-term supply and demand situation may maintain a basic balance, and prices will continue to consolidate.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that the recent surge in liquid ammonia prices is expected to be a short-term behavior, with a slight cooling of the weekend trading atmosphere and weak increases in manufacturer quotes. The supply side will enter a period of device recovery, and there will be fewer maintenance devices than resumption devices in the later stage, leading to an expected increase in supply pressure. But there is no bright spot on the demand side, and the operating rate of downstream factories is insufficient, which will suppress the shipment speed of ammonia plants. The price of liquid ammonia is prone to decline but difficult to rise in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda was relatively strong in January. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of caustic soda in Shandong was 827 yuan/ton. On January 24th, the caustic soda price in Shandong was 995 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.31% compared to January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda tends to be strong in the operating market. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1000-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is relatively strong, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 950-1050 yuan/ton. Due to the maintenance of caustic soda enterprises at the beginning of the month, the inventory of the Shandong liquid alkali market has decreased, and the overall operation is relatively strong. Currently, the overall inventory is still not high. The tight supply situation in the market has led to an increase in caustic soda prices, and the export business has entered a period of explosive growth. Although downstream demand is approaching the Spring Festival, it is still relatively positive.

On January 23, the Business Social Chemical Index was 834 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 40.43% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 39.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been relatively strong, with low inventory in some areas and active downstream demand. However, pre holiday stocking is nearing completion. It is expected that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later part of the Spring Festival, depending on downstream market demand.

Bromine is the only non-metallic substance in liquid form at room temperature, with the chemical formula Br2. It has a deep reddish brown color and a pungent odor. Bromine has lively physicochemical properties and can form a wide variety of inorganic bromides as well as a large number of organic compounds containing bromine. Due to the unique physicochemical properties of different bromides, bromine has become a widely used basic chemical raw material and is one of the key raw materials for chemical production and even the entire industrial production.

Let’s take a look at the price of bromine: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the overall price of bromine in 2024 presents a “w” shape, with an average market price of 24800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 21900 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a price drop of 11.69%.

From the monthly K-bar chart of bromine, it can be seen that in 2024, there were 6 months of increase and 6 months of decrease. The largest increase was in May, with prices rising by 13.78%, and the largest decrease was in March, with prices falling by 16.22%.

Let’s take a look at the annual comparison chart of bromine. From the annual comparison chart, it can be seen that the overall price of bromine has been weak this year, and its price is at a historical low of about 5 years.

Let’s take a closer look at the price trend. In the first stage, prices declined from January to early April, and this stage is in a continuous downward trend. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 24800 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the market average was 18200 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 26.61%. In the first quarter of 2024, prices have been unilaterally declining. At the beginning of the year, bromine manufacturers still had a small amount of inventory due to the Spring Festival, mainly consuming inventory. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are operating at low loads, with a low willingness to purchase and a focus on purchasing for essential needs. Downstream demand is weak, and there is sufficient supply of imported bromine and seawater bromine entering the market, resulting in a continuous decline in bromine prices until early April.

In the second stage, from mid April to June 22, the price increased from the average market price of 18100 yuan/ton in mid April to around 23500 yuan/ton on June 22, with a price increase of 29.83%. Mainly due to the stocking of goods by enterprises before May Day, prices experienced an upward trend, which continued until late June.

The third stage, the consolidation period from July to mid October, saw prices fluctuate around 19800-20600 yuan/ton. Mainly due to poor demand, enterprises have a stable mentality, and their intention to stabilize prices is more obvious. They mainly hold onto goods and are reluctant to sell. However, in the case of weak downstream expectations, it is difficult to raise prices. The game of supply and demand is dominated by price consolidation.

The fourth stage, which rose in late October and then fell. Mainly due to manufacturer maintenance, the price of bromine has increased. But with the price increase, downstream resistance began, and there was no driving force for the price increase of bromine, so the price subsequently consolidated and operated mainly.

The overall price of bromine in 2024 shows a “W” shape. Can the price improve in 2024

On the supply side: From the supply side, there has been relatively little change in the supply of bromine in China, and the overall supply trend is relatively stable. Due to the decreasing underground brine resources, the increase in bromine production capacity in China is slow. The data shows that the domestic production in 2024 will be 92000 tons, with an average annual capacity utilization rate of 58%, which is not significantly different from last year.

In terms of import and export: Currently, the self-sufficiency rate of China’s domestic bromine market is not high, and bromine heavily relies on imports. China’s bromine self-sufficiency rate has remained at a low level in recent years, but the dependence on bromine imports is high, and the supply of the bromine industry chain is constrained by countries such as Israel, the United States, and India. Customs data shows that the annual import volume of bromine in China will be close to 80000 tons in 2024.

In terms of fuel, the long-term sluggish downstream demand has led to slow inventory consumption by manufacturers. The main flame retardant, tetrabromobisphenol A, maintains low load operation with low prices. The price of tetrabromobisphenol A is close to the cost line, resulting in a significant compression of profits. At the same time, there is a lack of order support. Bromine procurement is mainly sporadic replenishment, while flame retardant manufacturers only focus on essential replenishment. The data shows that the downstream demand for bromine in 2024 is about 150000 tons.

Prediction: Business Society analysis believes that the price of bromine has been weak and consolidating in the near future. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have generally supported the market in the near future. As the year-end approaches, most companies have stocked up and prices will not fluctuate too much in the near future. The change in bromine supply in our country is relatively small, and we rely on imported bromine from abroad. Overall, it is expected that bromine prices will remain weak in the short term. However, as the weather warms up after the year and businesses resume production, downstream demand may recover, and bromine may rebound after the year, depending on downstream market demand.