According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable this week. As of December 13th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11583.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of this week.

Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remained stable at a high level this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, domestic fluorite prices have risen this week. As of December 13th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society fluorite was 3678.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Maintain stability in the downstream refrigerant market. Some factories have offered price increases. Affected by quota management and maintenance plans, most units in the refrigerant industry entered a shutdown state in December, and the operating load gradually decreased, resulting in a continued cold atmosphere towards raw material procurement.

Market forecast: The market price of raw materials remains stable at a high level, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. We adopt a wait-and-see and cautious attitude towards high priced raw material purchases. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 2nd to 6th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2539 yuan/ton to 2504 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.38% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 2.23%, a month on month increase of 1.38%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.63%. The domestic methanol market is relatively weak. Methanol production enterprises have low inventory levels, Northwest CTO enterprises have no external procurement, and other downstream enterprises maintain essential procurement. The atmosphere of the domestic methanol market has weakened. Downstream demand remains stable, port inventory accumulates, and port methanol also weakens.

As of the close on December 6th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2519 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2544 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2510 yuan/ton. It closed at 2533 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.60%, with a trading volume of 339101 lots and a holding volume of 427094 lots, with a daily increase of -21842.

In terms of cost, the current supply of coal from production areas remains high, and the daily consumption of terminal power plants has risen slowly. The accumulation of high coal reserves and the lack of enthusiasm for market coal procurement have led to the highest level of port inventory this year, suppressing the driving force of coal price increases. In the context of loose supply and demand, the price of thermal coal is showing a weak and bearish trend. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

Demand side, downstream acetic acid: reduced demand for acetic acid; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases; Downstream chlorides: Mainstream factories in East China are undergoing shutdown and maintenance, with plans to restore equipment inventory. The demand for chlorides may increase slightly; There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde and dimethyl ether units, and there is little fluctuation in methanol demand. The majority of downstream demand for methanol is bearish, and the negative factors on the methanol demand side have an impact.

On the supply side, the overall recovery of the equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of December 5th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 344.00-345.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 121.00-122.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 439.00-440.00 euros/ton, up 23 euros/ton.

The future forecast suggests that inventory may not fluctuate significantly. The improvement of traditional downstream demand is limited, and attention still needs to be paid to the external procurement volume of some olefin enterprises. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices declined in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 1037 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 1021 yuan/ton. The overall price decreased by 1.54%, and the price increased by 21.55% compared to the same period last year. On November 28th, the chemical index was 844 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.71% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 41.14% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has declined this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1000-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 990-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. Local prices in Shandong remain stable and wait-and-see, while overall inventory levels of enterprises are low. In the short term, domestic alumina prices continue to show a strong trend, and demand for caustic soda is still acceptable, maintaining the current price trend of caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 47th week of 2024 (11.18-11.22), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are PVC (-1.00%), caustic soda (-0.91%), and baking soda (-0.13%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.34%.

Business analysts believe that caustic soda prices have been consolidating recently. The price of caustic soda is operating steadily, with low inventory in some areas. Downstream demand is expected to remain stable in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

In November, dichloromethane rose to a high for the year. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in mid November, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province rose to 3180 yuan/ton, an increase of 20% from the beginning of the month and 32.36% from the beginning of the year; As of the end of November, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region was 2990 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 12.83%.

In the first ten days of the year, the rapid growth of dichloromethane led to a decrease in production load on the supply side, an increase in raw material prices on the cost side, and a lack of inventory due to smooth trading by traders, resulting in the dichloromethane market reaching a new high for the year. At high prices, the market has light shipments and inventory is under pressure. Manufacturers are considering the negative factors of weak demand and increased supply, and have slightly lowered their quotations. At the end of the month, there was an increase in enterprise maintenance, and manufacturers adjusted their quotations accordingly, resulting in a good market transaction atmosphere and proactive replenishment.

On the supply side: It is understood that several large factories have stopped for maintenance and low load operation during the month, resulting in tight market supply, which strongly supports the upward trend of dichloromethane market.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of methanol is mainly rising, and some production enterprises are limiting their shipments, which is driving up the price of methanol in mainland China. The inventory has significantly decreased, but it is still at a high level. As of November 29th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2544 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55% from the beginning of the month. The market for liquid chlorine in Shandong continues to rise, with increased confidence in business transactions and a stable bullish outlook.

In terms of demand, the market price of refrigerant R32 has risen, with little remaining annual quota, and spot prices continue to be tight. The circulation market is digesting inventory, and production shutdown and maintenance plans are clear. Some downstream home appliance manufacturers are facing insufficient quotas. The supply shortage trend in December is obvious, and offers are expected to continue to break through the previous high. Order prices in the first quarter are still expected to rise. Other applications should maintain a strong demand for purchasing and restock at low prices.

Business analysts believe that the maintenance of large factories is favorable, supported by the upward trend of raw materials, and the demand side is in urgent need of procurement. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11600 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11640 tons, with a price increase of 0.34%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have slightly increased this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market transaction atmosphere is active, and industry insiders’ quotations are firm, with a focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: There is an increase in inquiries in the activated carbon market, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was around 1021 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.13% compared to last year. On November 21, the chemical index was 847 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.50% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 41.64% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)/p>

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 990-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Jiangsu region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1020-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Inner Mongolia region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This week, the maintenance and supply of caustic soda facilities in some areas are tight, supporting the current selling price. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 46th week of 2024 (11.11-11.15), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.40%), caustic soda (-0.29%), and PVC (-0.19%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.33%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating, and some areas of caustic soda facilities are undergoing maintenance. Downstream customers are mainly cautious and watching, and the overall supply and demand game is expected to maintain a consolidating operation of caustic soda in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the DOP price was 9438.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.16% compared to the DOP price of 9238.75 yuan/ton on November 10th. The demand for plasticizer DOP is stable, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and rises. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is stable, and the off-season for downstream PVC is approaching. The demand for plasticizers has fallen, and the high price of plasticizer DOP has fallen.

Downstream demand declines

Entering the second half of the year, downstream PVC product companies are gradually experiencing a decline in production. As we enter November, which is traditionally the off-season in the market, downstream PVC production is expected to decrease. As the weather in the north gradually turns colder, demand is weakening; The downstream market has fallen, and the downward pressure on plasticizers has increased.

Raw material costs fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the price of isooctanol was 9633.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.96% compared to the price of 9266.67 yuan/ton on November 10th. This week, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, the supply of isooctanol decreased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. The supply of isooctanol has decreased and demand has remained stable. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen. The cost of plasticizers has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and risen.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has risen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers. In the future, as the supply of isooctanol recovers, raw material prices fluctuate and fall, the expected cost of plasticizers decreases, and the downward pressure on isooctanol increases; The off-season is approaching, and demand expectations are decreasing, leading to a decrease in costs and weak demand. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will weakly decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market first rose and then fell in October 2024. From October 1st to 30th, the domestic xylene market price fell from 5960 yuan/ton to 5940 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 0.34% during the period.

In the first half of October, the mixed xylene market first rose and then fell. On October 16th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 5950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17% from 5960 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the mixed xylene market saw an overall rebound, with external and crude oil markets rising during the holiday period, driving the domestic market to make up for the holiday. The mixed xylene market saw a rebound of about 5%. However, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market is generally low, lacking downstream support, and the mixed xylene market lacks the driving force to continue rising. Subsequently, with the decline of the external market and the general correction of the domestic market, the market maintains rigid demand trading, and prices continue to decline. Currently, the overall operation is weak.

In the second half of the month, the overall xylene market has declined this cycle, and the poor performance of the post holiday crude oil market has dragged down market sentiment. The overall supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose, and some facilities in Shandong have been put into operation, as well as overall high port inventories. In terms of demand, the downstream market tends to be rigid and weak, which has dragged down market sentiment. Spot market offers continued to decline during the week, and refineries also actively shipped, resulting in a gradual decline in market prices.

Cost aspect: The international oil price market rose first and then fell during this cycle, with international crude oil futures closing down as of October 29th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $67.21 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $70.73 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at high levels, which is partly due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In addition, the local economy in Asia has improved, and the market’s panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. The crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation first rose and then fell. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable plant production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of October 30th, East China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5850-5900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900-6000 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 7012.50 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.60% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 7200 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped by 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.24%. After the holiday, phthalic anhydride customers replenished their inventory, and the price of phthalic anhydride briefly increased. As the replenishment ended, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell; In October, the production of phthalic anhydride equipment remained stable at a high level, with sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride. However, the actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market were limited, resulting in oversupply and significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices; The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has weakened. The oversupply has led to a decrease in costs, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

On October 31st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7300 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the price on September 30th, 2024. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $829-831/ton as of October 30th, a cumulative decrease of $13/ton from $842-844/ton at the end of September.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to operate weakly in the near future, with weak cost support. In terms of supply, port inventories in East China have been accumulating recently, while plant construction in Shandong has increased. Refineries have accumulated inventory, which has a negative impact on the market. On the demand side, the trend of refined oil products is weak, and the purchasing intention is biased towards rigid demand. Overall, the recent bearish impact on the spot market is significant, and it is expected that the xylene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 11666 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11533/ton, a decrease of 1.14% in price.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have fallen this month, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market is sluggish, and industry insiders mainly focus on inquiries, with a particular emphasis on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The activated carbon market lacks favorable support, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

Isooctanol prices fluctuated and consolidated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of isooctanol was 9200 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and stabilized compared to the price of isooctanol on October 18th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the price of isooctanol at 8706.67 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with an increase of 5.67%. This week, the supply and demand of isooctanol are relatively balanced, with expected sales of orders from isooctanol manufacturers. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and consolidating.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and stabilize

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9226.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 0.14% compared to the DOP price of 9213.75 yuan/ton on October 18th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with a 2.64% increase. The price of isooctanol is fluctuating and stabilizing, while the cost of DOP is temporarily stable. DOP manufacturers are selling orders, and downstream demand and procurement are generally active. The price of plasticizer DOP is relatively stable. Plasticizer demand support, octanol demand support still exists, and octanol prices are fluctuating and stabilizing.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that downstream customers have increased resistance to high priced isooctanol, and market purchasing enthusiasm is average, resulting in fluctuating and consolidating isooctanol prices; Isooctanol manufacturers are operating steadily, with sufficient supply of isooctanol. In the future, the supply and demand of isooctanol market are relatively balanced, and the price of isooctanol is consolidating.